Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 420 AM FRI...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED ALONG S COAST
AND LATEST MODELS SUPPORT ACTIVITY SPREADING N-NE MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF HWY 17 EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS INCREASED LIKELY POPS THAT AREA
WITH LOWER CHC TO W. 05Z HI RES RUC HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND
INDICATES COASTAL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING MID MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT
THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH SEA BREEZE. WITH TROPICAL MSTR IN PLACE
AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY SPREADING IN FROM S-SW...LIKELY POPS
LOOK GOOD FOR ALL ZONES DURING AFTN. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY
AGAIN THIS AFTN ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZE FLOOD THREAT WITH
PRECIP WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO ON
THU...AROUND 90 INLAND AND UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM FRI...SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN MODELS INDICATE LESS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
WITH WEAK SHRT WV RIDGING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LVL TROF.
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FCST CHC POPS OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST W AND N
AND ALONG COAST. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS PERSISTENCE FOR MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS SAT. MDLS CONT
TO SHOW LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIP WTRS VALUES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. WILL HAVE A DECENT SRT WAVE ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND A SFC FRONT DROPPING SE INTO THE
REGION. ALL THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SHRA
AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A GOOD BET. IF GET SOME HEATING
SAT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. FRONT
WILL GRAD SAG S THRU THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. DECENT
MOISTURE WILL CONT OVER SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY SO WILL CONT LIKELY
POPS SRN HALF SAT NIGHT WITH CHC S TO NO POPS N FOR SUNDAY. FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE TO THE S SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES GRAD SHIFTING
OFF THE CST MONDAY. EXPECT JUST ISOLD ACTIVITY FOCUSED INLAND DURING
AFTN AND EVENING MON AND TUE AS UPR RDG TO THE W EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. MADE NO CHANGES TO WED AND THU...MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON
TIMING OF FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH GFS FASTER. TEMPS ON
SAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LESS
PRECIP SUN ESPCLY N WITH SOME LOWER 90S LIKELY. AS UPR RDG BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SHLD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK
INLAND WITH POSS TEMPS DROPPING A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK AS FRONT
APPROACHES/CROSSES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/SHORT TERM 06Z FRI-06Z SAT/...
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY OVERNIGHT FCST AS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT TAF SITES INTO EARLY MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THREAT SHIFTING TO COAST AGAIN REST OF NIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THREAT INLAND. ALL SITES EXCEPT KOAJ RECEIVED PCPN DURING LATE
AFTN/EVENING WHICH WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR IFR VSBY/CIG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS
AND CONTINUED WITH PREVIUOS FCST THINKING OF PERIOD OF MVFR. SCT-BKN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH
SEA BREEZE AND HEATING.

/LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PDS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. WOULD
EXPECT WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS SAT NIGHT GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. MAINLY VFR MON AND TUE WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...AS USUAL CANT RULE OUT MAINLY LATE
NIGHT FOG/ST. IF WE GET THE EXPECTED RAIN THE NEXT CPL DAYS WILL
HOPEFULLY SEE PENDER COUNTY WILDFIRE GREATLY REDUCED WITH LESS
SMOKE.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM FRI...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON TIGHTENING PRES GRAD
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...AND LEANED TO
GFS/ECMWF BLEND RESULTING IN 20-25 KTS ALL BUT ALB SOUND. THUS ADDED
PAM SOUND AND WATERS N OF OREGON INLET TO SCA BUT JUST FOR TONIGHT.
CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS ALREADY HAVE SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT...EXPECTED
TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT OUTER PORTIONS THIS EVENING.

/LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY SAT AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...SHLD STILL HAVE SCA SEAS CNTRL AND SRN
WTRS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU NRN HALF
OF REGION BY LATE SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE BEHIND
FRONT...SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 15 KTS. FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE S THRU
THE REGION BY EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY NE WINDS EARLY SUN BECOMING
MORE E LATE. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AND MON...THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS VEERING TO SE SUN
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY S BU LATE MON. SW FLOW THEN WILL SET UP MON
NIGHT AND TUE WITH HIGH OFFSHORE AND FRONT/TROF TO THE W. WITH
WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KTS SUN THRU TUE EXPECT SEAS OF MOSTLY 2
TO 3 FEET...LIKELY BUILDING TO 4 FT OUTER WTRS LATER TUE AS SW
WINDS INCREASE A BIT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...JBM/RF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
519 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ029-044>046-079>081-094-090930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-PAMLICO-
519 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-104-090930-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
519 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A
FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ047-090>093-090930-
MAINLAND DARE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-
519 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-090930-
ONSLOW-
519 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
539 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ092-093-098-081030-
CRAVEN-JONES-ONSLOW-
539 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ONSLOW...JONES AND CRAVEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM EDT...

AT 539 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARINES...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN GATE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN
GATE...MIDWAY PARK...HUBERT...BEAR CREEK...SWANSBORO...SILVERDALE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 7748 3470 7741 3467 7738 3470 7738
      3471 7740 3499 7715 3483 7693 3481 7698
      3480 7716 3477 7716 3475 7712 3467 7711
      3461 7718 3452 7735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 220DEG 20KT 3463 7733

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