Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INLAND WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TUES THROUGH
THURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED JUST SOUTH OF
HATTERAS AND MAY DRIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS LOOKOUT BEFORE STALLING AND
THEN RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE. CONVECTION IS
REDEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER TN AND WEAKER CONVECTION OVER WV AND
WESTERN VA. ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN NC IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER
FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SPC MESOANALYIS INDICATES INCREASING
CAPE AND DECREASING LI'S WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NC. SPC
HAS TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK TO THE SW WITH ABOUT
HALF OF THE MHX CWA STILL IN A THREAT FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS OF MINIMAL POPS BEFORE 06Z AND THEN
INCREASING POPS AFTERWARD LOOK GOOD AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
PLANNED FOR THE 1030 PM UPDATE. OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S BUT CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE
BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS THAT
ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GFS SHOWS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN AN AREA OF WEAK NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW AND MID-LEVEL VORTMAX
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THINK CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH ONLY 20 PCT POPS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUN...EXITING SFC LOW PRES WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
INTO E NC FOR MON NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. 850MB THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS WRN CWA AND COMBINED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN NW FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH MON NIGHT. SFC HIGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
TUE WITH RETURN FLOW ENSUING. SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY INLAND COUNTIES DUE TO SEA BREEZE PROPAGATION IN
COMBO WITH MORE POTENTIAL NW FLOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.

FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS UPR
RIDGE BUILDS AND 850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO ABOVE 20C. WED APPEARS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INLAND LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...RH VALUES WILL BE ON THE
INC AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PROGRESS. HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 105
FOR MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MED/LONG RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
THUR/FRI. LARGE UPR TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A SFC FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC REGION. FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NC
COAST...THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SEA BREEZE. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
PERIOD. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM SUNDAY...GENERALLY ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD HAVE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VSBY
LATER TONIGHT IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...AND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP.

/LONG TERM MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 320 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WED AND THUR BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FOR FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH
OF HATTERAS. THE NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE HAS DECREASED TO 10
TO 15 KT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT W TO SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KT WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL BECOME SE. PREVIOUS
SHIFT ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF HATTERAS
WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
AND WINDS/SEAS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER MONDAY AS MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC
COAST LATE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WAVEWATCH AS LOCAL SWAN HAS
TRENDED A TAD HIGH THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 6 TO 8
FEET BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

/LONG TERM MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...SFC LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE WATERS. NW WINDS WILL VEER N AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MON EVENING. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...ESP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY TUE...WITH
WINDS VEERING SE TUE AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES. WINDS VEER
FURTHER TO SW LATE TUE NIGHT AND INC TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IN THIS
RANGE...THOUGH AS UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH ON THUR...
SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FOR THUR
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC/JME
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/JME/TL
MARINE...CTC/JME/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ045-046-104-210130-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044-079-080-090>095-098-210130-
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF A CEDAR ISLAND TO KINSTON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ047-081-103-210130-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-OUTER BANKS DARE-
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

NCZ029-044-079-090>092-200530-
DUPLIN-GREENE-JONES-LENOIR-MARTIN-PITT-
1231 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS DUPLIN...JONES...LENOIR...
PITT...MARTIN AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

AT 1230 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF FOUNTAIN TO CALYPSO...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO MOUNT
OLIVE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF
YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 7816 3520 7802 3515 7790 3518 7784
      3538 7781 3542 7783 3557 7783 3580 7748
      3584 7739 3583 7735 3591 7735 3599 7740
      3602 7722 3593 7719 3593 7709 3547 7731
      3530 7746 3501 7757 3501 7816 3511 7818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 260DEG 33KT 3585 7780 3520 7804

DAG