Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD
FRONT ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CAPE FEAR TO THE PIEDMONT REGION
PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE COAST WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO CROSS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
ABRUPT END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. CAA SURGE ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS.
MAXES RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY UNDER PTCLOUDY SKIES. RIDGE
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS CLOUD COVER WITH MAXES INTO THE 60S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CREEPS CLOSER...HAVE A SMALL
POP IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WEDS NIGHT PUTTING EASTERN NC IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ONCOMING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LIKE
TODAY'S SYSTEM...GFS/ECMWF SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT
DECENT SHEAR...SO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY. AFTER A
WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 70...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND MINS IN THE 30S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT
WILL NOT ADD POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER
WEST AND NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ALSO DIMINISHING IN
GUSTINESS AND CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY SO
EXPECT MAINLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS.

/LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT THE USUAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE. WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH DIAMOND SHOALS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 12-13 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND WINDS VEER WEST
THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON OTHERWISE THE SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
WILL ALL FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN WINDS AND SEAS.

/LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AND A
MOSTLY OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT KEEPING SEAS IN CHECK. BY WEDS
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...1045 MB BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO COMBINED LONG FETCH NE SWELL
AND WIND WAVE LEADING TO LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS WEDS/WEDS
NIGHT AND FOR WINDS/SEAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-070900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
355 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NCZ045>047-103-062200-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-OUTER BANKS DARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...
KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
336 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS REGION...

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE OVER WASHINGTON...TYRRELL
AND MAINLAND AND OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM. LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
533 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NCZ090-062330-
DUPLIN-
533 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DUPLIN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 532 PM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WARSAW TO 16 MILES WEST OF WALLACE...OR FROM 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT OLIVE TO 16 MILES WEST OF WALLACE...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WARSAW AT 540 PM EST...
WALLACE AT 550 PM EST..

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

8

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