River Flood Warning 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

291 
WGUS82 KMHX 301248
FLSMHX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
848 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR CHINQUAPIN AFFECTING DUPLIN COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR 
IN AUTOMOBILES WHEN PEOPLE TRY TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. 

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL
RADIO...MEDIA OR CABLE TV. 

&&

NCC061-301318-
/O.CAN.KMHX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110831T0000Z/
/CHIN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
848 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR CHINQUAPIN.
* AT  8 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TODAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...MINOR LOW LAND FLOODING ADJACENT TO THE 
  RIVER WILL OCCUR. TRIBUTARIES TO THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL
  ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE LOW LAND FLOODING.

$$

             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 7AM EST
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI

NORTH EAST CAPE FEAR RIVER
  CHINQUAPIN  13  12.9 TUE 08 AM    N/A    N/A    N/A

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN
DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...STILL ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT.
SOUNDING PARAMETERS FROM 12Z SHOW A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LI VALUES
OF -7. THE MDPI VALUES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION THIS MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET WELL INTO THE 80S OR LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...CONTINUED CHC POPS ALL AREAS THIS EVENING
AS SRT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SRT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING NE ALL AREAS...THE
PRECIP WILL BE GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE DEEP INLAND AREAS. CAA
AND DRYING WILL BE LIMITED INIT WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY 65 TO 70
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TUE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MORNING AND
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP BUT EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. UPPER RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH DRY WX EXPECTED. NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING MIDWEEK...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY WITH
GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SETUP WEST OF THE REGION AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE WEEKEND AND WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SITES MOSTLY IN IFR...OCNL DROPPING TO IFR. FOG
WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. SCT CONVECTION WL DVLP LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND ALONG WEAK SFC BNDRY.  FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CVRG OF PRECIP JUST HAVE CB REMARK IN. COULD
AGAIN SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP WITH REDUCED VSBYS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORN WITH MOIST LOW LVLS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
TUE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ASSOC CONVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WED THROUGH FRI
WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS FOR AREAS FROM OREGON INLET NORTH AND THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND LIGHT SW WINDS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH FRONTAL
BNDRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT NE ACROSS THE N
TO LIGHT S ACROSS SRN WTRS. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3
TO 5 FT RANGE. LIMITED OBS MAKE IT HARD TO TELL WHAT SEAS ARE OFF
CNTRL WTRS AS SWAN SHOWS SOME 6 FT SEAS BUT WILL GO CLOSER TO WAVE
WATCH AND KEEP AOB 5 FT WITH NO HEADLINES. AS SRT WAVE MOVES TWRD
CST TONIGHT WILL SEE NE FLOW DEVELOP ALL WTRS AS FRONT DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. SPEEDS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT...MAY SEE NEAR 15
KTS NRN WTRS LATE AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN. DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS BOTH WAVEWATCH AND SWAN CONT TO SHOW 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PER
LINGERING SWELL...HIGHEST SEAS OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL CREATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS 3 TO
5 FT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...WITH 2 TO 4 FT FOR SOUTHERN
WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...CTC/RF/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-300700-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
247 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-300700-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
247 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2011

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.