Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

845 
WWUS82 KMHX 190728
RFWMHX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
228 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-192100-
/O.CON.KMHX.FW.W.0001.110219T1400Z-110220T0200Z/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
228 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* TIMING: MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* WIND: NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY: DROPPING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT INLAND TO NEAR 25 
  PERCENT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

* TEMPERATURES: HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST TO 
  AROUND 70 INLAND. 

* IMPACTS: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR THE 
  RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

896 
WWUS82 KMHX 191955
RFWMHX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-200200-
/O.CON.KMHX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110220T0200Z/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
255 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* WIND: NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY: AROUND 15 PERCENT INLAND TO NEAR 25 PERCENT ALONG THE
  COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES: HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S
  NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 70 INLAND.

* IMPACTS: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR THE 
  RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
151 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
DROP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE STARVED SFC FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN SCT CLOUDS
AND NW WIND SHIFT. MIXING INVOF THE LOW LEVEL BNDRY WILL MAINTAIN
MILD TEMPS THRU MUCH OF THE OVRNGT BUT A DROP VERY LATE ON A WEAK
CAA SURGE YIELDS LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP VERY DRY NW FLOW MOVES IN ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE. SNDGS INDICATE THE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW WILL MIX DOWN THE LOW DEW POINT
AIR TO THE SFC. WINDS WILL BE COME GUSTY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN. THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTS
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 65-70+ RANGE INLAND TMRW WITH LOW 60S FOR OBX
WHERE WIND IS OFF THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE TIMING SEVERAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH ERN NC. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE INTO ERN NC
SUN MORNING...AND MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLY COOL MAX TS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE OBX.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST. BRIEF RETURN FLOW AS SW WINDS DEVELOP ON MON AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S...WITH NEAR 60
READINGS OBX. MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITES HAVE COME INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONT PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME ON TUE.
GULF WILL BE CUT OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS FROPA...SO NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS LOOK TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
DESPITE OVRNGT FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD
GIVEN THE LIMITED BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AS
MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE TMRW WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY.

/LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM FRI...VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY DRY AIR SPREADS IN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MON
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE. BEST CHC FOR POSS SOME REDUCED CIGS
WOULD BE LATER MON INTO TUE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT CONT INCREASE OF SW WINDS WITH 15
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED MOST WTRS AND 20-25KT FOR CENTRAL LEG. WILL
CONT SCA S OF LOOKOUT FOR NOW SINCE DO SHOW SOME 6 FT SEAS FAR
OUTER WTRS BUT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. ADDED SOME FOG FOR COASTAL
WATERS BASED ON NEAR SHORE OBS SHOWING VSBYS AT TIMES REDUCED TO
LESS THAN 1 MILE BUT VIS SATL SHOWS THIS AREA THINNING/SHRINKING
SO MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN. WINDS GO W THEN EVENTUALLY NW
OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA. SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT INIT NOT VERY STRONG AND
THINK SEAS WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY SO PLAN ON ENDING SCA LATER
TONIGHT ALL WTRS.

/LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CHALLENGES FOR THE MARINE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES AND ABRUPT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND INTENSITY. COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH ERN NC SAT MORNING...WITH WINDS
VEERING NW AND BECOMING GUSTY. INITIAL SHOT OF CAA WILL BE
MODEST...SO THINK SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET DURING SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT...DEEP MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OFF THE GULF OF MAINE AS
HIGH RIDGES INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. ISALLOBARIC COUPLING AND
CAA WILL INCREASE WINDS QUITE DRAMATICALLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THINKING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE MET EASILY FOR THE
NORTHERN OBX AND SWELL HEIGHTS MAY BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW IN CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUN AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR GRADIENT
TO RELAX. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH RETURN FLOW
ENSUING ON SUN NIGHT. MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADV ONCE AGAIN ON
MON/MON NIGHT THOUGH WITH WAA REGIME THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON THIS.

LOW PRES MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH MID ATLANTIC ON TUE...DRAGGING A
SHARP COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. WINDS ABRUPTLY TURN NRLY AND AGAIN WITH
STRONG CAA COULD SEE WINDS AND WAVES QUITE HIGH BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY UPGRADE TO
A RED FLAG WARNING EITHER THIS AFTN OR OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS 30+ COMBINED WITH LOW RHS OF 15-25% WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TMRW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF/TL
FIRE WEATHER...BTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1217 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-191730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
1217 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-191730-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1217 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.