High Surf Advisory 6, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
210 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM MONDAY...UPDATED TO ADD 30 POP REST OF DAY TO SRN
SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COUNTIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND TEMPS. RADAR INDICATES NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD JUST OFF
COAST OF SRN ONSLOW COUNTY AND EXEPCTED TO MOVE INLAND ON NW
TRAJECTORY THIS AFTN. WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SRN SECTIONS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER MORE TOWARD CLOUDY.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID 70S EVEN WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...AS THE LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND
CEILINGS LOWER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT-TERM
MODELS IN PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THINK THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS WAY WILL POPS
QUICKLY GOING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY AFTER 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HAVE TRENDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN TEMPS IN THE 64 TO 68 DEGREE RANGE AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SOAKING RAINS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUE AS
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN INVOF THE TROF. AT THE
SFC... STRONG HIGH PRES WILL RELUCTANTLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BY TUE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR LOW PRES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NC. THE
HIGH WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ON STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH AREA OF INTENSE UVV/WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR QUICK LOW LEVEL SATURATION. FOLLOWED 00Z
NAM/ECM SOLUTION FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS THROUGH TUE...AS THESE
SOLNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN/MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCIES VERSUS THE TOO QUICK GFS. MODEL X SECTIONS
INDICATING THIS AREA OF STRONG FGEN APPROACHING THE CRYSTAL COAST
AROUND 12Z...AND PUSHING INTO NE NC BY 18Z. RAISED POPS
DRAMATICALLY AFTER 12Z ACCORDINGLY. ALSO RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT AS
MODEL QPF AND HPC HAVE INCREASED. SUPPLY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES CONFIRM HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OF AROUND
AN INCH ON AVERAGE. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE E NC AS
EASTERLY LLJ OF 35 KT INDICATED. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. AREA OF LOW
PRES AND FGEN LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM E NC TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH
HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING AWAY WITH IT. HOWEVER...WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THUR NIGHT TAKING
ANY REMAINING RAIN POSSIBILITIES WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER
AREA DURING PERIOD AS DEEP MSTR BAND SPREADS N. CURRENT LEADING EDGE
OF PCPN NEAR KOAJ FALLING OUT OF MID DECK AND WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...THUS VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EVENING. PCPN WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER AREA 09Z-12Z WITH MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED BY 15Z.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PLAGUE THE TERMINALS ON
TUE... AS LOW PRES MOVES UP THE NC COAST. CIGS WILL LOWER
DRAMATICALLY BY MORNING INTO THE IFR RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGES IN. VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES. LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY TUE NIGHT AS
BNDRY LAYER WILL BE SATURATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...THOUGH
SCT SHOWERS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...ESP NEAR THE COAST. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THUR NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM MON...ADDED CHC POPS FOR RAIN OVER SRN SECTIONS
AMZ158...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND WAVES DURING PERIOD.
MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES TO N AND LOW PRES S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MON...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON TUE AS AREA OF
LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST OF NC...AND DEPARTING HIGH PRES TO THE
NE PROVIDE A STRONG PRES GRADIENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...AS MODELS
INDICATING LL EASTERLY JET INC TO 40 KT. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL
MAKE IT TO THE SFC IN THE FORM OF GUSTS...AND THE OUTER WATERS MAY
SEE OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN AROUND DAYBREAK TUE AND NOON.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO RETREAT NE...THOUGH STRONG WINDS ABOVE 25
KT CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD UPWARDS
OF 12 FT BY TUE MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH AROUND 8 FT
SEAS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE STRONG EAST WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON WED...THOUGH WAVES WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 6 FT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THUR...AND SCA CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER WITH WAVES GREATER THAN 6 FT FOR THE CENTRAL OUTER
WATERS...AND THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1146 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-111600-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
1146 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-111600-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
1146 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-104-111600-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1146 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.