Gale Watch 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH SATURDAY. THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS LOW TEMPS VERY CLOSE AND BLENDED....MAINLY LOWER
30S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...THE MID ATLANTIC COAST HIGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING
THE DAY BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS &
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE LOW
LEVELS...AND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING S WINDS EXPECTED THU NIGHT AS
WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NE ALONG FRONT TO THE W. WILL SEE MILD
TEMPS WITH READINGS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S THEN HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING LATE AS WINDS INCREASE. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THU NIGHT HOWEVER BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE
W SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT POP FOR INLAND AREAS. BEST RAIN CHCS WILL BE
FRI MORN INTO THE EARLY AFTN AS COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE
REGION. RAISED POPS TO LOW LIKELY NW SECTIONS WITH HIGH CHC
FURTHER S AND E AS MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SHOW DIMINISHING
MOISTURE/QPF AS FRONT MOVES E OF MTNS. WILL BE WINDY AND WARM FRI
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INLAND SITES IN THE 70 TO 75 DGR
RANGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH MOST AREAS. DESPITE
RATHER HIGH POPS LOOKING FOR RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH FORECAST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W TO E BEFORE
EVENING AS FRONT SLIDES OFF THE CST.

CLEARING AND COOLER FRI NIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S NW TO LOW/MID 40S CST. DRY WX FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES CROSSES TO THE N SAT AND CONTS WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT
WILL REACH THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST SPOTS. AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES SRLY SUN HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70
INLAND. WARM AND MILD SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES. WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 50S SUN NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND MON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MON INTO MON NIGHT WHEN
DEEPEST BAND OF MOISTURE CROSSES ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DAYS WITH GUSTY S/SW MON WITH TIGHT GRDNT OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

DRY AND SEASONAL TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY. SCATTERED MID
DECK CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 KT BY AFTN.

COULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS IN MVFR RANGE THU NIGHT AS LOW LVL S/SW
WINDS INCREASE. BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS AND POSS SOME REDUCED
VSBYS WILL BE FRI MORN AND EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHRA ASSOC WITH
COLD FRONT CROSSES. EXPECT SSW WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS
MOST AREAS MID MORN FRI INTO THE AFTN. VFR EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE N AND MOVES OFFSHORE. NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHRA AND GUSTY SW WINDS MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POSS SOME
REDUCED CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS EVE. WINDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS EVE BUT A BIT
STRONGER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH COASTAL WATERS (15KT) BUT THESE
SHUD BE DECREASING OVRNGT AS WELL AS PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX ALONG THE COAST. THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING
EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THUR...AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

/LONG TERM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING S WINDS EXPECTED THU NIGHT AS
LOW PRES MOVES NE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPEEDS
REACHING 20 TO 25 KTS MOST WTRS BY LATE THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET OVER WTRS S OF OREGON INLET. STRONGEST WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE MIDDAY FRI AND WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO GALES
OVER CNTRL WTRS...THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET
CNTRL WTRS BY FRI AFTN. FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI EVENING
WITH W WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS GRAD VEERING TO N/NE AT 15 TO 20 KTS BY
SAT MORN. SEAS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN SCA RANGE THRU FRI NIGHT THEN
DROP BELOW 6 FT SAT. DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT
THRU SUN AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFFSHORE TO THE N WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT E/SE LATE SAT THEN SRLY ON SUNDAY. S/SW WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE TO SCA LVLS MON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FT CNTRL WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...BTC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...BTC/RF/HSA
MARINE...BTC/RF/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-240900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
337 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-240900-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
337 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.