Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY. IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...SHIELD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NC AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES.
CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF MOREHEAD CITY
AS OF THE 5 PM EDT NHC ADVISORY.

CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING AS IS TYPICAL FOR
LANDFALLING HURRICANES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK.
DISCREET CELLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED ON MHX RADAR
INDICATING ROTATION...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY THIS
EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS. SPC
MESOANALYIS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT 0-1KM SHEAR...AND WITH VERY LOW
LCL VALS...LOW LEVEL HELICITY MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE COASTAL
WATERS...AS OUTER ONSLOW BUOY IS REPORTING 38 KT AND CAPE LOOKOUT
AT 35KT. WINDS STILL SUB TROPICAL STORM FORCE STRENGTH OVER
LAND...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF IRENE APPROACHES CAPE LOOKOUT.

HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENTS AND MEDIA
REGARDING EVACUATION STATEMENTS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO SEE HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENT (HLS) FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
SATURDAY WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS HURRICANE
IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. PLEASE SEE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT (HLS) FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC THREATS. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRACK FORECAST FROM NHC...HURRICANE IRENE WILL CROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AND 00Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...LAST VESTIGES OF
HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS WITH LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ENDING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER IRENE LIFTS WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY THREAT OF
RAINFALL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER THE HURRICANE. BY
WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING EAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE
OVERSPREADING E NC...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEEDING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
STRENGTH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT KEWN AND KOAJ NEARER THE
CENTER OF IRENE...AND WILL BE SUSTAINED OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE
STRENGTH. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF IRENE MOVES AWAY FROM E NC.

LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRI...HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE IMPROVING BEHIND IT...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL W FLOW DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...LATEST NHC UPDATE INDICATES HURRICANE IRENE
IS ABOUT 300 MILES SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH 15 SECOND
SEAS OF 11-13 FT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT ABOVE 20
FT WITH EVEN HIGHER SWELLS FARTHER FROM SHORE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...OFF
CAPE FEAR AND UPSTREAM OF OUR COASTAL ZONES...HAS SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 18 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO OUR MARINE ZONES OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS THRU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY SUNDAY MORNING...IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF NE FLOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND SEAS ROUGH ON SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LARGE SIZE OF IRENE IS MAKING THE FLOOD THREAT HIGHER THAN
TYPICAL WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION. THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS BEGUN WORKING INTO THE REGION IN RAIN BANDS...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR. LATEST 18Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING SHOWS PW OF 2.34"...NOT UNCOMMON FOR A TROPICAL
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING PW INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SAT...WITH VALUES AROUND 3". THIS WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH RATES OVER 3" PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE STORM TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS 10-15"
POSSIBLE. ONE COUNTY EAST OR WEST OF THE TRACK WILL LIKELY SHAVE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OFF THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SO THE
COASTAL PLAINS COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS WE EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE FLOODING
BECOMES MORE THAN NUISANCE. GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR 8-15" ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL BE UNDER A FLOOD WARNING DURING THIS EVENT.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING...MOST WATERWAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING LOW
TO VERY LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THIS WILL AID IN
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF RIVER FLOODING...THOUGH ANY BASIN OBSERVING
RAINFALL OVER 8 INCHES WILL LIKELY FLOOD. ADDING TO THE FLOOD
THREAT IS THE STORM SURGE ALONG THE SOUNDS...WHICH WILL BACKUP THE
FRESHWATER FLOW ALONG THE NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FRESHWATER INLAND FLOODING RISK NEAR THE
SOUNDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-
     104.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
&&

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...TL/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
HYDROLOGY...

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