Special Weather Statement, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY
NEAR ADEL AND PLUSH. THESE STORMS SPIKED UP RAPIDLY BUT HAVE SINCE
WEAKENED. THIS AREA CORRESPONDS RATHER WELL WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AREA PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...AND EXTENDS TO THE NORTH
INTO HARNEY COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A LESSER UNSTABLE AREA TO THE
SOUTH BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS AREA. THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGES STILL SHOW A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS JUST OFFSHORE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE INLAND AND PROVIDE INSTABILITY THROUGH MONDAY FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A VERY ORGANIZED EVENT AND LOCATIONS FROM EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY
EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU COUNTY APPEAR MOST LIKELY.

THE TROUGH SHOULD FILL IN BY TUESDAY AND A MORE ZONAL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS IS A
DRIER BUT ALSO MORE STABLE PATTERN. HAVE CONTINUED WITH NO MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORM BEYOND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT
SOME WARMING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THIS WILL HELP TO BUILD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE PAC NW. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS EAST TO IDAHO BY SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO
START WATCHING FOR ANY SHORT WAVES THAT MAY MOVE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 04Z AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT DOESNT APPEAR LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD TOO FAR INLAND AND UMPQUA BASIN SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR KMFR WITH ISOLATE
CB AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF KLMT INTO KLKV.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

08/99/99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             4 E MACDOEL             41.83N 121.93W
08/06/2011  E0.25 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            15 MINUTE PERIOD MODERATE RAIN AND HAIL..COOLED
            TEMPERATURES DOWN 14 DEGREES..BEFORE THE STORM THE
            TEMPERATURE WAS 90 DEGREES AND ONCE THE STORM PASSED
            THROUGH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 76

&&

BUNKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
434 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

ORZ030-031-070000-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY OR-NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH
COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY OR-
434 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
PDT...

AT 430 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF VALLEY FALLS...OR 19 MILES
NORTH OF LAKEVIEW...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOSS PASS BUTTE AND
SHOESTRING BUTTE IN SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4253 12053 4253 12025 4224 12028 4226 12058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 191DEG 3KT 4245 12046

SK