Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Medford, OR

087 
WWUS56 KMFR 122258
SVSMFR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
358 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

ORC019-035-122307-
/O.EXP.KMFR.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110912T2300Z/
DOUGLAS OR-KLAMATH OR-
358 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL KLAMATH AND
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM PDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

LAT...LON 4336 12213 4356 12200 4342 12169 4326 12180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 117DEG 6KT 4341 12191

$$

MAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING PRIMED FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT VIS IMAGE SHOWS
CUMULUS BUILD UPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP
SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE IN THE PAST HOUR. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING RETURNS
WITH CELLS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE TREND WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INCREASING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE MODERATE TO
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM PST.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIZZLE OUT BETWEEN 7
AND 9 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN
SISKIYOU...MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY.

THE UPPER LOW PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
REMAINS FACTOR FOR STORMS TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...EXCEPT FOR MODOC AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND LAKE COUNTY
WHERE SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS
SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRAS AND UP INTO
NORTHERN CAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SO DECIDED
TO ADD ISOLATED STORMS TO THE WARNERS AND EAST OF MOUNT SHASTA IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN QPF BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EARLIER FORECAST HAVE KEPT IT DRY...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AND COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING IN DURING MAX HEATING...WE COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BREAK OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR OUR FIRE
WEATHER PARTNERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE GFS SUGGEST A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC
ALSO SHOWS A RIDGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS. AT ANY RATE IT
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN A WEEK FROM TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONG THE COAST AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS CONTINUE AT COOS BAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 2 AND 3Z AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL ALSO LOWER AFTER 6Z AND LAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT TOWERING
CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
ISOLATED STORMS. SO THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH 4 Z WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027>031.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ083>085.
PZ...NONE.

PETRUCELLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1214 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-130600-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1214 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CA AND OR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TO 11 PM PDT FOR LIGHTNING WITH
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE. SEE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1221 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERRILL                 42.03N 121.60W
09/11/2011  E40.00 MPH       KLAMATH            OR   PUBLIC

            WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH HEAVY PONDING OF WATER ON
            ROADWAYS AROUND 5 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

WOODHEAD