River Flood Watch 3, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT WED MAR 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ARE BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
NEAR 40N 130W MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH
SHOWING THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST BY
EARLY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT.
GREATEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
WHERE THE NAM IS FORECASTING UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING WILL BE NEAR 2500 FEET...LOWERING TO 1500 TO 2000
FEET OVERNIGHT THEN RISING TO 3000 FEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CURRY
COUNTY...WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. ALSO GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY...ROGUE VALLEY AND
FOR AREA EAST OF THE CASCADES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING INLAND DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIGS/VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED IN
SHRASN TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCES MOVES INTO THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z TO 15Z BRINGING SHRASN...SPREADING INLAND INTO
WEST SIDE TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEGINNING AROUND 09Z TO 12Z EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS SPREADING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY SHOWERS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE PUSHED RIVER
LEVELS SHARPLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY THE COQUILLE. A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE AND MAY BE UPGRADED
TO A FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING. THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE IS
CURRENTLY AT ACTION STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO RISE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LEVELS STAYING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OTHER
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION EDITED... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT WED MAR 16 2011/

SHORT TERM...LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. I DID NOT ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST BECAUSE
THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS SIGNIFICANT...LESSENING THE
WINDS AT THE COASTLINE AND KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ALSO ...OTH-ACV GRADIENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EVEN
APPROACH THE DESIRED -9MB THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH -6MB REFLECTED IN
THE NAM. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EARLIER
THOUGH H7 FLOW DOES NOT QUITE MATCH UP WITH THE SHASTA VALLEY
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. ROGUE VALLEY WINDS ARE A QUESTION MARK AND
WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT ANALYZE THE WIND TIMING FOR THE
ROGUE...SHASTA...AND EAST SIDE.

I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY...ABOVE 3500 FEET...FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOLID 50KT H7 SOUTH FLOW...GOOD MOISTURE AND VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND H8 TEMPERATURES OF
-1C TO -3C SHOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL DOWN TO 3500 FEET. RIGHT
NOW...THE WATCH CALLS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES AND WILL LIKELY BE
REFINED A BIT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST SHIFTS. OF
NOTE...LATEST MODEL RUNS HOLD THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL AND SHOWERY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THERE IS LITTLE SIGN OF RELIEF FROM THIS COOL, WET, UNSETTLED
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED (SUN-WED). THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
EARLY ON IN SHOWING LOTS OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF OUR
CLOSE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE. THIS CAUSES THE LOW TO WOBBLE SOUTH OF US
INTO CNTRL CA DURING THE DAY SUN AND THEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
MON INTO TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONDITIONS
OVER SW OR/NRN CA IN THAT THE CONSTANT STREAM OF PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT. HOWEVER, THE MODELS STILL ALL
SHOW SOME PRECIP WRAPPING NORTH OF THE LOW INTO OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF
THAT PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE NEXT LOW WILL BE FORMING ALONG
140W WHICH THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING WELL. THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW SHOW THE LOW MORE OFF SHORE AND FURTHER
SOUTH. AT LEAST THEY ARE ALL FLIP FLOPPING TOGETHER WHICH USUALLY
MEANS THEY ARE ON TO SOMETHING. THIS LOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE
FOOTSTEPS OF ITS PREDECESSOR AND MOVE IN OVER CNTRL CA. THIS COULD
ALLOW US SOME DRIER WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL NOT GO TOO FAR
IN THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ATM. IN THE MEAN
TIME, WILL START TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE FOR SUN AS THE LOW
DROPS SOUTH, BUT WILL NOT REMOVE THEM ALTOGETHER. PERSISTENCE MAY BE
OUR BEST FRIEND UNTIL WE SEE A SOLID PATTERN SHIFT COMING. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR CAZ080-082-083.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

CC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED MAR 16 2011

ORZ021-022-171000-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
304 PM PDT WED MAR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEE COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
FOR DEATAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ080-082-083-171000-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
304 PM PDT WED MAR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET. SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR
DEATAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GLASER

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