Hazardous Seas Warning 33, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW MARINE CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. TO THE SOUTH...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED NEAR BROOKINGS AND TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
INTO THE UMPQUA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REPORTED NEAR ROSEBURG...THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER SEEMS LIKELY. THE NAM INDICATES
THIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AND ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE MID MORNING EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
OVER THE CWA FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
INLAND. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING NEAR THE COAST.

THEN...THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
STRONGEST. ALSO A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING VERY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COAST TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY
ALSO BRING A PARTIAL BROOKINGS ON TUESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BROOKINGS WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MARINE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE MARINE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE
SHALLOW AND LASTING FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH IDEAL
FLYING CONDITIONS FOR GA PILOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EDITED... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2011/

DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS OVER THE CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
THE MARINE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO RE
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT'S QUESTIONABLE AS
TO THE EXTENT OF THE MARINE STRATUS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. IF IT
WERE TO MAKE IT IN THERE...IT WOULD BE FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS AND
SHALLOW. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

THE 4TH OF JULY CAN'T GET MUCH BETTER THAN THIS...CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN IN THE MORNING
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED BEFORE IT WILL BE PICTURE
PERFECT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...BARBECUE AND EVENING FIREWORKS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND
IN THE UPPER 70S BY THE START OF THE FIREWORKS.

DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUD BUILDUPS IN MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE LACK OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM...BUT WILL
WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 20-22 C WHICH COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 90S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DAY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FIRE
UP ISOLATED STORMS.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
AND GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT THE EC
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE AND THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. EITHER
WAY...THE WEST SIDE WILL HAVE A MARINE PUSH WHICH WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO THE AIR MASS
CHANGE. OF BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.

CC