Hazardous Seas Warning 25, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT (OR AT LEAST THE WINDSHIFT LINE THAT USED
TO BE THE FRONT) HAS NOW LIMPED INTO ID/NV AND IS CLEAR OF MY FA.
AS EXPECTED THIS FRONT WAS PRETTY WEAK AND FAILED TO PRODUCE MUCH
PRECIP OVER SW OR AND PRETTY MUCH NONE OVER THE EAST SIDE OR CA.
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT PRETTY RAPIDLY.
AM MILDLY CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER WE WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO NEED
FROST/FREEZE WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF SW OR TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SO
FAR 00Z GUIDANCE ISN'T ANY COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN THE
FORECAST NOW. FURTHERMORE THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ISN'T
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SO THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN THIS EVENING, BUT WHILE
IT WILL BE CHILLY, AM NOT EXPECTING TO HOIST ANY FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS A COUPLE OF VERY
NICE DAYS HEAD OUR WAY TOMORROW AND WED. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND EDGES TOWARD THE
COAST. OBS ALONG THE NORTH COAST SHOW STRATUS AROUND 050 AND
SATELLITE TEMPS VERIFY STRATUS CLOUD TOPS OFFSHORE ARE IN THAT
RANGE. HOWEVER, STILL CAN'T RULE OUT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THIS STRATUS DRIFTS IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2011/

SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED
EAST OF THE CASCADES AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES QUICKLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A PEAK WIND GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE KLAMATH
FALLS AIRPORT. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD JUST OFF THE COAST THEN SHIFT
INLAND OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ON THURSDAY A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE REGION
BUT ITS IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL...A LITTLE COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.

LONG TERM...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO FORECAST
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3
     AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 2
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.