Hazardous Seas Warning 14, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PST TUE MAR 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT REMAINS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED
AND BECOME BROKEN UP COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE NAM/GFS
AND EC CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF AMOUNTS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST OREGON TO
START...THEN OVER COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY TONIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME IT'S ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE WEATHER. MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS COULD END UP DRY AND
IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING....TEMPERATURES COULD GET INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING IT'S WAY TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFTING  INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT INLAND. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS
SHOW 700 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
OVERHEAD RESULTING IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL  BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. IN FACT SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND HIGHWAY
140 COULD HAVE SOME ROAD SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER DARK THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. SHOWERS AT THIS POINT WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS. PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON
FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL FRONTS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. STILL...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY.

THEN...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING  A SECOND STRONGER
LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRINGS A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS GOOD MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. EXPECT MOST THE
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY TO FALL AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.
THE ECMWF AND GFS RAISE SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 4500 TO
5500 FEET THEN LOWER THEM TO AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET IN SHOWERS
EARLY MONDAY.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE
JET STREAM WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST
EARLY TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS EVENT. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. ELSEWHERE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AFTER 6Z WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1150 AM PST TUE MAR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE GOLD BEACH         42.44N 124.39W
03/08/2011  M1.50 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR AMOUNT

&&

SPILDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1211 PM PST TUE MAR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE BROOKINGS         42.06N 124.28W
03/08/2011  M2.29 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

SPILDE