Gale Watch 23, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
139 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN ISSUES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
DEGREE OF STRATUS INTRUSION INTO INTERIOR VALLEYS MID WEEK AND
WINDS OVER THE WATERS.

TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET AS THE UPPER LOW IS NOW WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND MOVING AWAY. FAIRLY STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TODAY. STRATUS HAS
INVADED ALL OF COOS AND FAR WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY ALREADY, AND
LOOKING AT THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER, IT WILL PROBABLY SPILL
INTO CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY BY SUNRISE. STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO
THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. THE REST OF US WILL SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THAT TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG ROUGHLY 140W AND IT WILL
PRODUCE A MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A
FAIRLY COOL DAY BY AUGUST STANDARDS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY
INVADE MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AM STILL NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR ALONG
THE COAST WHERE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND. THE MODELS ARE NOW LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THAT AT
LEAST WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE AROUND 150W.
GIVEN THE INCREASING AGREEMENT I HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP OVER
THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT'S STILL A LONG WAYS OFF, BUT GIVEN
WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, I
DON'T THINK WE CAN QUITE RULE OUT A 100 DEGREE READING IN MEDFORD
THIS YEAR JUST YET. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO THERMAL TROUGHING
AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY
AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL ZONE NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO WILL MV INTO KRBG AND CONTINUE THROUGH 29/16Z, THEN
BCMG VFR. IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS IN STRATUS/FG INVOF KBOK
THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN VFR. SIMILAR CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. VFR ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

14/14/14