Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST INTO THE EAST COAST METRO THROUGH TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND LIKELY BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY SAT AFTERNOON. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE COMMON
DURING SAT. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011/

SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE ERN GULF OF MEX.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH PRESS RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CARIB WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A STRONG EAST WIND FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
WESTWARD...COUPLED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE LINES DEVELOPING
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TRAINING (ONE AFTER THE OTHER) AFFECTING
EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS WEEKEND COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
WEST PALM BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI METROPOLITAN
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER SHOULD SHOWERS OR STORMS
MOVE OVER A SAME LOCATION FOR LONG DURATION. THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISE THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A HYBRID
LOW/CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HOWEVER THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY AS TO WHERE THIS COULD HAPPEN. GFS CONTINUES TO
INSIST IT WILL BE SE OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVE NORTHWARD PARALLEL
TO THE COAST, WHILE ECMWF IS VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES IT NORTH. THIS SHOWS
DIFFERENT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDING WHAT MODEL TURN OUT
TO BE RIGHT. GFS PUTS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ECMWF, ON
THE OTHER HAND...HAS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HEAVIER
PRECIP AND HIGHER WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND TOWARD THAT MODEL
SOLUTION...HENCE THE HIGH POPS...HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS
INDICATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF
WL START AN IMPROVING TREND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECREASING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OVER ERN GULF. BY
WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND RAPIDLY OVER THE CAROLINAS. MDLS INDICATE A POSSIBLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEING DRAGGED SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THU NIGHT WITH
DRIER WX CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH ROUGH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY AND A NEW
ADVISORY WILL TAKE EFFECT THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF OF MEX WATERS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  84  76  85 / 50 80 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  78  86 / 50 60 60 50
MIAMI            76  86  76  86 / 50 60 60 50
NAPLES           73  88  72  87 / 30 60 40 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BISCAYNE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH,
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
     BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
     GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-080900-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES/HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, LEADING TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. SOME STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, SO
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL
AREAS TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH THIS POTENTIAL INCREASING THIS WEEKEND.

WAVES: SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF STREAM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS INCLUDING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS,
POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PALM
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IS ISOLATED LOCALES ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ071>074-173-080015-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE
FL
741 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A   STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AVENTURA...AND MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AS WELL.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  DOLPHINS STADIUM...
  MIAMI GARDENS...
  MIAMI LAKES...
  MEDLEY...
  PENNSUCO...
  INTERSECTION KROME AND U.S. 27...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2580 8041 2599 8049 2600 8017 2596 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 076DEG 21KT 2597 8021

TINGLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEMBROKE PINES          26.01N 80.34W
10/07/2011  M51.00 MPH       BROWARD            FL   ASOS

            A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST AT HOLLYWOOD NORTH
            PERRY AIRPORT.

&&

CARACOZZA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ071>074-173-080015-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE
FL
753 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 752 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MIAMI GARDENS...AND MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 55 MPH. A RECENT WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE
HOLLYWOOD NORTH PERRY AIRPORT.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  DOLPHINS STADIUM...
  MIAMI GARDENS...
  MIAMI LAKES...
  MEDLEY...
  PENNSUCO...
  INTERSECTION KROME AND U.S. 27...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

LAT...LON 2580 8041 2599 8049 2600 8017 2596 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 076DEG 21KT 2597 8021

TINGLER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-080100-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD
COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO
PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
836 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 831 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LIGHTHOUSE POINT...AND MOVING WEST AT 30
  MPH. A WIND GUST OF 57 MPH WAS RECORDED IN POMPANO BEACH WITH THIS
  STORM.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  OAKLAND PARK...
  COCONUT CREEK...
  MARGATE...
  CORAL SPRINGS...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2626 8007 2617 8009 2616 8010 2611 8036
      2640 8037 2636 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 089DEG 27KT 2627 8012

TINGLER