Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOUTHERLY LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE SEEMS MORE STABLE
TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT, DIURNAL HEATING MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE IT BY WARMING UP THE LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR NUMRS SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HOWEVER, WL EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY
TOWARD THE LAKE REGION AND INTERIOR SECTIONS DUE TO MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH LAKE/SEA BREEZES INTERACTION
AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THINGS.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY BY 06Z TONIGHT AS
DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. AND BY DOING SO, WILL PUSH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE EASTWARD. STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SO
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE STEERED TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE ERN METRO AREAS...HOWEVER, MORNING AND
NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT OVER THE WEST COAST.
MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THIS,
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.

NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPS (MAX OR MINS) SHOULD BE EXPECTED,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVER ERN AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK
WESTWARD. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN TEND TO FOCUS OVER
INLAND AREA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

.MARINE...A MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW, VARIABLE TONIGHT
BUT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST-WEST FROM SUNDAY ON, WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 2
FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WESTWARD FROM MID-WEEK ON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 / 20 40 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  92  79  91 / 20 40 20 30
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 / 20 40 20 30
NAPLES           77  91  77  92 / 20 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...14/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-140930-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
753 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MIDDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS, OVER THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FLOODING: SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STREET AND LOW LYING FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES: HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 104 TO 108 DEGREES
IN THE INTERIOR, AND OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERY DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR HIGH WINDS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ063-132100-
GLADES FL
416 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRIGHTON SEMINOLE
  INDIAN...AND DRIFTING SOUTH.

* THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT...
  CULSA...
  LAKEPORT...
  AND AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2705 8093 2703 8094 2703 8096 2705 8098
      2701 8101 2698 8108 2696 8108 2695 8107
      2692 8107 2693 8112 2708 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 018DEG 3KT 2699 8100

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