Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE GULF
COAST MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN
RETROGRADING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
EAST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS OF
2.1-2.3 INCHES. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS TSTORM
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A
WEAK SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. FLOW WILL RELAX...AND SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTION WOULD DETERMINE STORM MOTION ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES...WITH SOME GUIDANCE PUSHING IT THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. KEPT POPS THE SAME AS MOST OF THE RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS
COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT LATER IN THE DAY
TO GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND REVERSING FLOW BACK OUT OF THE WEST BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL
S/W AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT
APF. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOT FCST AT THIS TIME. FLL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THIS HAPPEN IF IT MATERIALIZES BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MOVING
ACROSS TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS FROM FLL NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE MAINLY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF 4 FOOT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 50 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  77  92 / 40 70 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  79  92 / 40 70 40 60
MIAMI            78  91  80  91 / 40 70 40 60
NAPLES           78  93  77  92 / 30 60 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...55/CWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-100430-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
920 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR TO EAST...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED STORMS WEST TO NUMEROUS EAST CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

WIND: WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND
100 WITH HIGHER VALUES INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HEAT INDICES OVER 100 EACH AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

CWC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FLZ067-068-091730-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
102 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WELLINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  WELLINGTON...
  ROYAL PALM BEACH...
  GOLDEN LAKES...
  HAVERHILL...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2680 8011 2665 8008 2662 8032 2670 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 254DEG 26KT 2668 8028

CWC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FLZ068-071-072-172-091930-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
247 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED TWO
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ONE NEAR INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27...AND
  THE OTHER ABOUT THREE MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF
  I-75 AND U.S. 27...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27...
  WESTON...
  INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
  DAVIE...
  SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...
  SUNRISE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2633 8015 2607 8013 2601 8050 2632 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 251DEG 21KT 2612 8043

AK