Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS MORE
IMPRESSIVE EARLIER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION BEGAN TO FLARE AND
EXPAND INTO OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH
REDEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE FOLLOWING 12 HRS AS
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH...THE MAIN IMPACTS APPEAR TO REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE ONLY CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...IF ANY...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF AND RIP CURRENTS OVER
THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY WATERS/COASTS AND THE CHANCE FOR
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SETTING UP OVER THE AREA FEEDING INTO
THE CIRCULATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS INDICATING A SHORT-WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER NRN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW AND RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL GENERALLY STICK WITH
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS JUST WEST OF THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL
LEAD TO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTY WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING.

IN THE EVENT EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTH...SURF AND RIP CURRENTS OVER PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES MAY INCREASE INTO THE MODERATE RANGE
WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SURF BECOMING A POSSIBILITY NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  77  91 / 50 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  92  80  92 / 50 50 30 40
MIAMI            80  91  79  91 / 50 50 30 50
NAPLES           79  91  77  91 / 30 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-070930-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO NEAR 110 TODAY - HIGHEST INTERIOR...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON,
AND SOME STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY TODAY.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES:  HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO NEAR 110 ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. THE HEAT INDEX AT COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL REACH INTO THE RANGE OF 100 TO AROUND 105.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HEAT INDICES OVER 100 EACH AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER IF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR FLOODING OCCURS SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FLZ072-062015-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR DAVIE...AND MOVING SOUTH
  AT 5 MPH.

* THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  DAVIE...
  COOPER CITY...
  SOUTHWEST RANCHES...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING IS
THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL
THE STORM PASSES.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2597 8020 2597 8021 2597 8029 2597 8030
      2597 8039 2615 8041 2614 8023 2598 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 346DEG 3KT 2606 8031

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FLZ070-062245-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 605 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILE MARKER 60 ON
  ALLIGATOR ALLEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR MILE MARKER 60...
  RURAL EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2623 8122 2623 8095 2603 8095 2604 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 180DEG 3KT 2612 8108

BAXTER