Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS HAS
CONTINUED TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER TO
MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD AND WILL LIKELY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW MUCH THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
PENETRATE ACROSS THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
CONFLICTING GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CONTINUES THE
TREND OF RECENT DAYS...I.E. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN IF THE
BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA DOES NOT COMPLETELY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE WILL STILL BE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO STILL EXTEND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MAY BE IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE LOCAL CONVECTION.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...AL TOUGH THE GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY TRANQUIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS NEAR 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  73  89 / 40 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  77  89 / 30 50 30 30
MIAMI            75  88  75  90 / 30 50 30 30
NAPLES           75  89  74  91 / 30 50 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...85/AG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

FLZ063-012015-
GLADES FL
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  LAKEPORT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2700 8103 2698 8108 2696 8108 2695 8106
      2692 8107 2692 8108 2693 8110 2690 8111
      2689 8117 2701 8121 2710 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 252DEG 5KT 2696 8113

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

FLZ067-012030-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
  WEST OF PAHOKEE TO SOUTH BAY...AND MOVING EAST AROUND 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  SOUTH BAY...
  BELLE GLADE...
  PAHOKEE...
  CANAL POINT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2665 8058 2664 8082 2671 8083 2671 8078
      2669 8074 2673 8073 2677 8075 2678 8072
      2675 8071 2676 8070 2681 8070 2685 8065
      2688 8063 2688 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 266DEG 11KT 2680 8073 2664 8070

BAXTER

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