Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH OR CENTRAL FL FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP S FL IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING THE MAIN CATALYST FOR CONVECTION UNDER STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH PWATS AT OR
NEAR 2" FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SCT TO NUM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE MAINLAND WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST
10KFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN SAT MORNING.

INTO THE EXTENDED...NEAR CLIMO/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FORECAST EACH DAY INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DOES INDICATE A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LVL RIDGE (DIFFERENT STRENGTHS IN DIFFERENT
MODELS) BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS KAPF. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO
VCTS WAS LEFT IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING AS WELL ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES. /CWC

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE PALM BEACHES AND LAKE REGION OR TO
POINTS NORTH. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WINDS
WILL INC INTO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS
TO BUILD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL LVLS THOUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  80  89 / 40 60 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 / 40 60 30 40
MIAMI            80  91  79  89 / 40 50 30 50
NAPLES           75  91  75  92 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...04/AT
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...55/CWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-250400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
208 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...FREQUENT LIGHTNING/TORRENTIAL RAIN/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THUNDERSTORMS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COASTS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

FLOODING: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...AND DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS TODAY...STREET
FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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