Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEA BREEZE BECOMING VERY ACTIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE CLOUD COVER THAT
WAS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING HAS MADE FOR A SLOWER
START ACROSS MIAMI DADE COUNTY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING ACROSS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND STRONG WINDS OVER 60 MPH.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
HEADS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF WILL SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW TODAY TO A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE EXPECT MUCH LESS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS STILL
EXPECTED INLAND. WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
ALOFT...EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTED THE 30-40 POPS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST ON
MONDAY.

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECLINE TO AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO GET PUSHED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN STATES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IMPACTS....BUT GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AND WATCH TRENDS. STORMS
WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF KAPF. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
IFR AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO PERHAPS BRIEF
MODERATE WINDS PERSISTING. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY FALLING JUST BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK. DISPERSION VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
GOOD EAST AND POOR TO FAIR ACROSS THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  91 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  91 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI            78  92  78  92 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES           74  93  75  94 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-200400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
905 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...60+ MPH WINDS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST...WHERE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH AN INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ALONG THE GULF COAST...THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

WIND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAIL: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER
SIZE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL POSE
A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 104
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

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