Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST...SO
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR KAPF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL. TSTORMS LOOK TO CONCENTRATE INLAND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS ON FRI AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011/

UPDATE...THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS SHUT DOWN MOST
PRECIP THIS EVENING, AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE LAKE REGION SO LEFT
IN 20% THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. /TINGLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011/

UPDATE...LOWERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND AND LOWER
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO START CONVECTION THERE. /TINGLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL NORTH FLOW OVER S FL. GUSTY N
WINDS WERE EVEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION IN GA AND N FL COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT AND SENT THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT DIVERGENCE NOTED ALOFT. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM, AND ALTHOUGH DEWPTS AND OVERALL MOISTURE LVLS ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT 3K TO 4K
J/KG - MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST. HVY RA, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE HIGH CAPE WITH WINDS TO
AROUND 60MPH AND HAIL TO NEAR 1".

THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND WILL CROSS THE PENINSULA
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SE. MOISTURE LVLS (1.5 - 1.6" PWAT) WILL ALSO REMAIN
LOWER TODAY INTO SAT BUT SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK NEAR 2"... THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AND SAT THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED.

AVIATION...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE EAST TODAY...WHICH
WILL CONCENTRATE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP WELL WITH THIS AND INDICATES THE
HIGHEST LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES OCCURRING OVER AND AROUND THE APF
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ESE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
CYCLE. 85/AG

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADV
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NE
TODAY TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NE GULF TO THE ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 FEET OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY LVLS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITERIA
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  78  89 / 10 20 10 30
MIAMI            78  92  78  92 / 10 20 10 30
NAPLES           76  93  75  90 / 20 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...04/AT
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...85/AG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-170000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
335 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

HAIL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND AROUND 100
DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FLZ070-170100-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
810 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 805 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILE MARKER
  60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* THIS STRONG STORM WILL AFFECT...
  BIG CYPRESS ACCESS AREAS OFF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND THE COLLIER COUNTY
  REST AREA ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 T0 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2625 8133 2623 8097 2600 8112 2600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 199DEG 4KT 2613 8114

GREGORIA