Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LOW LEVEL AND SOMEWHAT WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEPER LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A BAND OF CLOUDS
IN THESE AREAS. THE TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH IS WHERE THE CONVECTION BEGAN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE PENINSULA...AND IS BEGINNING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE STRAITS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...SO LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THAT PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FACT
THAT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING BOUNDARY FROM CURRENT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA COULD ALSO HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BAND OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH
FORECAST PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL PART OF THE
PENINSULA WILL STILL WEAKLY EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RIDGING WILL START TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
DECREASING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
REGIONAL WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS NEAR 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  74  91 / 10 30 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  78  90 / 10 30 10 30
MIAMI            75  91  77  91 / 20 30 10 30
NAPLES           75  88  74  89 / 10 20 10 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-130815-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
203 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW STRONG...
...SLIGHT RISK OF MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VISIBILITY: SMOKE FROM A NEARLY EXTINGUISHED WILDFIRE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. KROME AVENUE
REMAINS CLOSED BETWEEN SOUTHWEST 8TH STREET AND HIGHWAY 27.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, CONTAINING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

HAIL: A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.

FLOODING: ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SLOW
MOTION OF THESE STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF URBAN TYPE
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES OF MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

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