Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...CHANCE OF NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA
TO REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...PLAN ON KEEPING A CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDER FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE COULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
WEST COAST METRO AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER REST OF THE
CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES
REMAIN MORE CLEAR AND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYS MORE
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
WORDING TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS ZONES FOR LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LET THE EVENING CREW LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THE
FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT WASHES OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS ALONG WITH THE THUNDER
WORDING OVER THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
CWA. SO THE POPS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE
WITH THE HIGHS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN GET PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK...AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF THIS
WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET COMING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
FOR THE POSSIBLE OF STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SWINGING BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE SPEEDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6
FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. SO BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO NO PROBLEMS
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  86  71  86 / 50 40 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  86  73  86 / 50 30 20 30
MIAMI            71  87  72  87 / 40 30 20 30
NAPLES           69  86  70  86 / 30 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...47/RGH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-282115-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
449 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55
MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...AND FUNNEL CLOUDS

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CORAL SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  CORAL SPRINGS...
  PARKLAND...
  COCONUT CREEK...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 T0 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2638 8007 2629 8007 2623 8009 2628 8042
      2641 8042 2644 8006 2639 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 270DEG 20KT 2633 8032

TINGLER

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