Coastal Flood Statement 3, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 AM EST THU MAR 3 2011

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ALL THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE ERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED. NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM EST WED MAR 2 2011/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO TIGHTEN OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. THE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WATERS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE WINDY CONDITION EXCEPT BREEZY ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE GULF
WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 6 TOP 8 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SO WILL PUT UP A SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS...AND CONTINUE THE SCA FOR REST OF THE CWA WATERS TONIGHT
EXCEPT A SCEC FOR THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM EST WED MAR 2 2011/

AVIATION...PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN HI OVR S FLA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CUBA AND A HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVG TWD NEW ENGLAND. ALG E COAST CRRNTLY SFC
WNDS NE-ENE 13-17G25 KTS TO GRADUALLY DCRS AFT 00Z TO 8-12KTS
XCPT AT KFLL 12-14KTS THEN INCRS AGN AFT 13Z E 13-16G25 KTS.
A STRAY SHRA OR SO MAY MOV FM ATLC ONSHR BUT NOT IN TAFS
ATTM. CLDS SCT OCNL BKN030-040. AT KAPF CRRNT SFC WNDS
NE 14-18G25 KTS DCRG AFT 01Z 8-10 KTS THEN INCRG AGN AFT
14Z ENE 14-18G25 KTS. OTRW...VFR ALL TERMINALS THRU PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EST WED MAR 2 2011/

EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG
ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BECOMING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAST
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.
TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW MOVING THROUGH
AREA, HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DRY NATURE OF AIR MASS
MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VERY BRIEF. ALL IN ALL, SEASONABLE EARLY MARCH
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME AN
INCREASING CONCERN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY NE-E WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY RETREATS FROM AREA ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SE AND S AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SE UNITED STATES. LEFT IN CURRENT 20 PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED SOME IF PRESENT MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A LIKELY RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND UP TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ATLANTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR AS PERIODS ABOUT 8-9 SECONDS. EXTENDED SCA FOR BISCAYNE BAY
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY
NOT REACH SCA LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY. ALSO HAVE CAUTION HEADLINE
FOR GULF WATERS, BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO FULL BLOWN
SCA ON THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
MOVES AWAY FROM AREA IN RESPONSE TO COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO 35-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF AREA ON THURSDAY, THEN POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 30
PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENTS/WARNINGS. SLOWLY MODERATING HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  65  77  67 / -  10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  67  77  69 / -  10 10 20
MIAMI            78  65  78  67 / -  10 10 20
NAPLES           81  58  82  60 / -  10 -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BISCAYNE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH,
     FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO
     OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL
     WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
     DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR GULF WATERS FROM
     CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...47/RGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 PM EST WED MAR 2 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-031000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
600 PM EST WED MAR 2 2011

...HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

WAVES: SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. IN
FACT...STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.