Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FL BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE PENINSULA. MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC
BUT INCREASING NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE E CST AND ENHANCE SHRA ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS AT KAPF WILL BE IFR CIGS EARLY ON WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 17Z. MOST SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
E CST AND ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE KAPF FOR THIS REASON. KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIV SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. CURRENT RADAR OBS SHOW A LONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM THE KEY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WL EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO ALSO HELP FIRING UP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED AREAS ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. WL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR ERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTERIOR/SOUTHWEST.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTIES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC FORCING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. WL KEEP
LOW SCT POPS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY TUE THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE FINALLY ENTER INTO A
DRIER PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW MID LATITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING
EASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

MARINE...SFC WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
COULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  69 / 60 20 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  83  73 / 60 20 10 -
MIAMI            84  72  83  71 / 60 30 20 -
NAPLES           85  68  85  64 / 50 10 10 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
     MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI
     DADE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-312330-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
416 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FLOOD WATCH BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING: A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FLOOD AREAS ALREADY INUNDATED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES
WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
GROUND IS SATURATED AND WATER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED IN CANALS AS
WELL AS IN LOW LYING AREAS, SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
QUICKLY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THUNDERSTORMS: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
PALM BEACH COAST WITH A MODERATE RISK ALONG THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST.

WAVES: SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
HIGHEST OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEAS OF LEAST 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK, DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 AM     FLOOD            FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
10/31/2011                   BROWARD            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE REPORTS
            NUMEROUS FLOODED HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THE CITY OF FORT
            LAUDERDALE. THEY ARE OPENING UP SHELTERS.

&&

GREGORIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OAKLAND PARK            26.17N 80.14W
10/31/2011  M6.11 INCH       BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT RAIN GUAGE RECORDED 6.11
            INCHES OF RAIN IN OAKLAND PARK. ALTHOUGH THIS TOTAL IS
            SINCE 7 AM SUNDAY, MOST OF THIS RAIN OCCURRED IN THE PAST
            TWO HOURS.

&&

GREGORIA