Wind Advisory 26, NWS Memphis, TN

853 
WWUS74 KMEG 142130
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-142230-
/O.CAN.KMEG.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111114T2200Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE
330 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

SJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
504 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011/

ANOTHER BREEZY AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AT 15 TO
25 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I40.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE KY AND
MO BORDERS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 06Z NAM
SOUNDING FOR FAR NORTHWEST TN AT 21Z SHOWED A SURFACE BASED CAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG...WEAKLY CAPPED NEAR 825 MB. THESE NUMBERS WERE
PREDICATED ON A 65F SURFACE DEWPOINT...WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS MARGINAL...BUT LINEAR SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE...
PERHAPS TOO STRONG FOR SUSTAINED DEEP UPDRAFTS. OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDSOUTH... CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL DIFFICULT TO COME BY. SEE
LITTLE REASON TO GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I40 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MEMPHIS METRO.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO EAST TX BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND SPEED ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO AR AND THE MIDSOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE MIDSOUTH ARE LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO APPALACHIA BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. SOME BRIEF WRAP AROUND LIGHT SHOWERS AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATO CUMULUS EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MIDSOUTH WEATHER
FOR LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY... RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY SATURDAY OVER THE DELTA... AND BY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. IN A NEAR REPEAT OF THIS PAST
WEEKEND... GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AR AND NORTHWEST
TN. OVERALL...GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME. CIGS MAY
LOWER SOME...POSSIBLY TO IFR AT KTUP...THROUGH 15-16Z.
THEREAFTER...GRADUAL LIFTING OF CIGS WILL OCCUR. BY 21Z...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE VFR. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 7-12Z AT ALL
TAF SITES...AND AGAIN POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT KTUP. AFTER
00Z...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS AREA WILL SEE ROUND AFTER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WITH
TSRAS GRADUALLY DYING OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS STARTING AT 00Z WITH A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 4Z-8Z FOR AT KJBR. AFTER 8Z...EXPECT
STEADY -SHRA ACTIVITY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. STRONG S WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM
10-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER 00Z...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.

KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  79  64  77  54 /  20  50  60  90
MKL  76  60  73  51 /  20  60  60  90
JBR  77  58  67  47 /  20  80  80  90
TUP  79  62  77  62 /  20  30  60  90

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-151130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
920 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL UNTIL 4 PM CST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM