Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
107 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/

UPDATE...
KNQA RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORMS LIFTING EAST THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR.  THE STORMS WERE ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 900MB...
AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRODUCING A SOUTHWARD MOVING GRAVITY
WAVE OVER THE AR DELTA...THROUGH A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STABLE LAYER.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR AND POINTS EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED A FEW CATEGORIES OVER THESE AREAS AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...POPS AND TEMPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED.

BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO... NEARER THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.
IT/S UNCLEAR IF THE AFOREMENTIONED GRAVITY WAVE WILL BECOME A
PLAYER IN SURFACED BASED CONVECTION SOUTH OF I40 THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN IT IS POSITIONED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTH MS.
CURRENT POPS HAVE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HANDLED WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. HOWEVER THE METROPOLITAN AREAS AROUND MEMPHIS ARE STILL
IN THE LOW 80S AND THE RURAL...LESS HUMID AREAS FARTHER EAST IN
TENNESSEE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 60S. 3 OT 5 DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM AROUND 68 TO 76 DEGREES. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR...BUT NONE IMPACTING OUR AREA
OF CONCERN IN EAST ARKANSAS...WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL OR NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BY SUNRISE THESE SHOWERS...LIKELY
IN A WEAKENED STATE...MAY MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE GFS HAS BEEN 2-4
DEGREES TOO WARM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INCONSISTENT IN
ITS POPS. ENSEMBLE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS INCONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF PERIODS WITH 12-HOUR POP DIFFERENCES OF
20-40 PERCENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW MEMBERS. ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY SHEARED BUT FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TODAY FEATURING CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG AND LI'S
GENERALLY AROUND -4 TO -6C. A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BECOMING
ORIENTED FROM WEST KENTUCKY TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ADDING A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO HELP SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY...APPROACHING -7C/KM BY 00Z ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS. STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING. WET MICROBURSTS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.
MDPI/WINDEX VALUES OF .80/66 INDICATE AT LEAST A MODERATELY HIGH
POSSIBILITY OF THESE HARD TO IDENTIFY WEATHER THREATS. ONE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR BOTH FLOODING AND MICROBURSTS IS PW.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES ARE
RESPECTABLE...VALUES AT AND ABOVE 1.75 WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE MOMENT
THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED FEATURES THAT WOULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL
REMAIN WARM AND UNSTABLE AND ANY MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
ENHANCE THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF STORMS...MUCH LIKE WE EXPECT
TO SEE TODAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE UPSTREAM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES. NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THESE SYSTEMS...BUT
FORECASTING THEM MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE IS TRICKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

30/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

SCT TSRAS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH INTERSTATE 40. SISTER CELLS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THESE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS TO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KMEM ATTM AND SHOULD TAKE MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VCTS PREVAILING
THROUGH 7 PM WITH SOME LINGERING POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY.

ANY PULSE STORMS THAT DO AFFECT ANY TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED GUST AROUND 25 KTS BUT WILL BE TRANSIENT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO LIGHT WINDS.

PLACED A TEMPO FOR BR AT KMKL FROM 3-7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH
RA/TSRA IN THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND IS DEPICTED IN LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

CCD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  95  77  96  74 /  30  30  30  20
MKL  93  73  93  71 /  40  50  30  20
JBR  88  72  93  72 /  70  30  30  20
TUP  96  72  96  71 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
352 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON LASTING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

TNZ050-089-090-041800-
FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-HARDEMAN TN-
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF DANCYVILLE AT 1223 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...HARDEMAN AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8909 3534 8922 3548 8944 3559 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 316DEG 16KT 3547 8928

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

TNZ004-041815-
HENRY TN-
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR...

  HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF PARIS AT 1245 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN HENRY COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR PARIS LANDING STATE
PARK AND PARIS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8800 3636 8808 3631 8809 3626 8808
      3621 8813 3619 8814 3632 8849 3651 8832
      3650 8804 3649 8803 3643 8804 3637 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 300DEG 33KT 3638 8822

RRH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

TNZ052>054-041830-
HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-CHESTER TN-
104 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLUE GOOSE AT 104 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...HENDERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR LEXINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BEECH LAKE AND PINE LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8845 3539 8849 3562 8883 3576 8869
      3569 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 307DEG 23KT 3564 8867

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
110 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ARZ036-048-049-MSZ007-008-041845-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-TUNICA MS-TATE MS-
110 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WEST CENTRAL TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF ROBINSONVILLE AT 110 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...LEE...ST. FRANCIS...TATE AND TUNICA COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
ALSO INCLUDES BEAVERDAM LAKE AND MIDWAY LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9040 3476 9020 3473 9020 3474 9018
      3471 9015 3458 9040 3486 9058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 326DEG 13KT 3483 9042

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MSZ001>003-TNZ050-053-088>090-041845-
DE SOTO MS-BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-HAYWOOD TN-
CHESTER TN-HARDEMAN TN-
115 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM WHITEVILLE TO 3 MILES EAST OF
LEWISBURG AT 115 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON...CHESTER...DESOTO...FAYETTE...HARDEMAN...HAYWOOD...
MARSHALL AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BOLIVAR...
CHICKASAW STATE FOREST...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND OLIVE BRANCH...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8875 3525 8879 3522 8879 3503 8897
      3479 8945 3484 9015 3511 8955 3542 8928
      3541 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 279DEG 27KT 3530 8911 3506 8932
          3487 8974