Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY...EDGING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AS
OF 320 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING A WEAKENING TREND AS
THEY TREK INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ONE THAT IS STRONGLY
CAPPED AS EVIDENT BY THE LACK OF A CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. NONETHELESS...THE COMPLEX WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY
ERODE AND MAY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A BIG PROBLEM...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND WESTERN AR BEHIND THE CURRENT BATCH. THERE MAY BE A RESPITE
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE MIDSOUTH BEFORE THE
SECOND ROUND PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS LATE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS ROUND LIMPING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
DISTURBANCE RACES TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD REFIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON IF WE CAN
RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY. THE THREAT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY...BUT STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE. WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. HEIGHT FALLS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR AND THAT
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS STORMS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-40...BUT THE MAIN STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL OK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IL/IN/OH.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THIS
FRONT...AND POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WERE GENERALLY KEPT LOW ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTH.
HERE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH COULD SET
OFF ADDITIONAL CELLS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
COMPLEX DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE CWA IS PRETTY LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. MOST OF NORTHERN MS WILL BE CAPPED AND QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/STORMS EXIST LENDS TO DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SURPRISINGLY COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN
BRINGING THE SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE WITH
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND DEW POINTS.

SUNNY AND COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MS VALLEY.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (1PM FRI - 1PM SAT)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS). THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS NEAR JBR AND MEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING PEAK MIXING PERIODS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  84  72  89 /  40  60  30  50
MKL  66  82  67  87 /  20  60  20  40
JBR  67  83  69  86 /  70  60  30  40
TUP  66  87  68  91 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
334 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ST
FRANCIS RIVER AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME BACKWATER
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-202100-
CRAIGHEAD AR-CLAY AR-RANDOLPH AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-
316 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
STRAWBERRY TO 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASH AT 316 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLACK ROCK...BONO...CORNING...
CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...LAKE
FRIERSON STATE PARK...POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 9137 3650 9099 3651 9045 3595 9053
      3571 9104 3571 9105 3588 9105 3589 9128
      3589 9136 3590 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 215DEG 32KT 3594 9144 3579 9121
          3551 9114

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ026-027-035-202115-
CROSS AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR...

  CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WEINER TO 5 MILES EAST OF HICKORY RIDGE AT 345 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BAY...BROOKLAND...HARRISBURG...JONESBORO...LAKE
CITY...LEPANTO...MARKED TREE...TRUMANN AND TYRONZA...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 9046 3597 9040 3551 9029 3544 9048
      3544 9050 3543 9050 3524 9102 3573 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 235DEG 23KT 3575 9098 3539 9089