Severe Thunderstorm Warning 688, NWS Memphis, TN

520 
WWUS54 KMEG 081823
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
123 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

MSC003-139-TNC069-109-081845-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0688.000000T0000Z-110808T1845Z/
TIPPAH MS-ALCORN MS-HARDEMAN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
123 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY...SOUTHERN HARDEMAN...WESTERN ALCORN AND
NORTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CHALYBEATE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG HILL POND STATE PARK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FALKNER...
KOSSUTH...WALNUT...MIDDLETON...SAULSBURY...LISBON...ROGERS SPRINGS...
ESSARY SPRINGS...TIPLERSVILLE...BROWNFIELD...CHALYBEATE...PEOPLES...
LONE PINE AND GIFT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8845 3475 8865 3476 8872 3474 8872
      3472 8884 3495 8902 3499 8902 3499 8905
      3508 8912 3514 8885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 297DEG 20KT 3493 8878

$$

772 
WWUS54 KMEG 081840
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
140 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

MSC003-139-TNC069-109-081850-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0688.000000T0000Z-110808T1845Z/
TIPPAH MS-ALCORN MS-HARDEMAN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
140 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY...
SOUTHERN HARDEMAN...WESTERN ALCORN AND NORTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM CDT...

AT 140 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3479 8845 3475 8865 3476 8872 3474 8872
      3472 8884 3495 8902 3499 8902 3499 8905
      3508 8912 3514 8885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 297DEG 20KT 3489 8868

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1208 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

11 AM KNQA RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH... ROUGHLY ORIENTED ALONG I40. THIS BOUNDARY ORIGINATED
FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO EARLIER THIS MORNING. AIRMASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS RELATIVELY STABLE...WITH A
PRONOUNCED GRAVITY WAVE SIGNATURE ON RADAR.

SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES WERE RECENTLY SENT.
TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
MIDSOUTH...HEAT HEADLINES TRIMMED BACK AND WINDS UPDATED. WAS
RELUCTANT AT MIDMORNING TO PULL ALL HEAT HEADLINES FROM THE
MEMPHIS METRO...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING YET TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...
HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED FURTHER TRIMMING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDS UP.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD INTENSIFY BRIEFLY AS
THEY INTERACT WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER.
LIKEWISE...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE.

ONE MORE DAY OF HOT OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. TRIMMED
BACK THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING ELIMINATING
MORE OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...BUT ALL AREAS REMAIN UNDER AT LEAST
A HEAT ADVISORY. AS NOTED EARLIER...CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO WE MAY SEE HEAT INDICES
STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT CAN BE THE MOST DANGEROUS PART...SO WILL
HOLD ON TO THE HEAT HEADLINES ONE MORE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING SOME RELIEF...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH WARNING/ADVISORY
CRITERIA WELL BEFORE STORMS INITIATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INTENSE
HEATING...ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER AS HEIGHTS FALL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD BACK IN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
MAKE SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS. TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND BY A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS
IN THE 89 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
ALTHOUGH THESE READINGS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST...AFTER
DEALING WITH MULTIPLE DAYS AROUND 100 DEGREES IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL
LIKE A TASTE OF SPRING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ...BUT FOR NOW THE BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

30/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

ISOL TO SCT SHRAS/TSRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG TWO DISTINCT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. KMKL WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A
SHRA OR TSRA OTHERWISE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW AND
EVENTUALLY TO SE BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES. SPEEDS MAY GUST TO 15
KTS. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ACROSS SW MO AND KS. HAVE ADDED TEMPOS TO KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND POSSIBLY VARIABLE DUE TO
CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  98  77  94  73 /  30  50  40  10
MKL  94  74  89  71 /  40  60  40  10
JBR  94  74  93  72 /  30  60  30  10
TUP  97  75  93  73 /  30  40  50  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-091115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1153 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

HEAT INDICES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES OVER EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOSER TO INTERSTATES 40 AND 55... INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA... HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

MSZ004>006-TNZ053-090>092-081800-
TISHOMINGO MS-TIPPAH MS-ALCORN MS-CHESTER TN-HARDEMAN TN-HARDIN TN-
MCNAIRY TN-
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MASSEYVILLE AT 1231 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...CHESTER...HARDEMAN...HARDIN...MCNAIRY...TIPPAH AND
TISHOMINGO COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BIG HILL POND STATE
PARK...CORINTH...PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK AND SELMER...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8901 3499 8902 3499 8904 3523 8910
      3538 8860 3521 8831 3507 8818 3500 8817
      3500 8820 3497 8817 3486 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 288DEG 27KT 3520 8873