Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 647, NWS Memphis, TN
NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2011, 7:07 PM CDT for Lafayette County, Panola County, Yalobusha County, Mississippi. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2011, 7:07 PM CDT (00:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 13, 2011, 7:35 PM CDT
- In force
- 28 min
- Issued by
- NWS Memphis, TN
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Lafayette County, MS, Panola County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 527 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -154 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1136 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
753 WUUS54 KMEG 140007 SVRMEG MSC071-107-161-140045- /O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0647.110714T0007Z-110714T0045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 707 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... EASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BATESVILLE...GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK AND JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK. THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR SARDIS LAKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5. && LAT...LON 3417 8956 3413 8991 3442 8998 3450 8974 TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 340DEG 7KT 3438 8981 $$
1 follow-up statement
049 WWUS54 KMEG 140035 SVSMEG SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 735 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 MSC071-107-161-140044- /O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0647.000000T0000Z-110714T0045Z/ YALOBUSHA MS-PANOLA MS-LAFAYETTE MS- 735 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE... EASTERN PANOLA AND NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED... AT 734 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED. LAT...LON 3417 8956 3413 8991 3442 8998 3450 8974 TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 340DEG 7KT 3433 8979 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 3:39 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 3:39 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THEN ON HEAT AND MORE STORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A CONTAMINATED ENVIRONMENT LEFT FROM THE OUTFLOWS OF THIS MORNING
HAVE KEPT THINGS RATHER STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS HAVE
POPPED UP OVER ARKANSAS...BUT THESE ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. OTHER
STORMS HAVE FIRED ON THE INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF
TUPELO. THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH IS MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY
HOT. ONCE THE OUTFLOW MAKES IT BEYOND CLARKSDALE AND COLUMBUS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL FALL BELOW 110. THUS...WILL
DOWNGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
REST OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
SINCE STORMS HAVEN/T REALLY FIRED YET...I CAN/T SEE THEM FIRING AS
THE AFTERNOON DRAWS LONGER AND THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. THUS HAVE
REDUCED POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS ARKANSAS WHERE THE MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN.
REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT IN PLACE AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND
REALLY BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK SHOULD BRING
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UPWARD AGAIN
ALONG THE NEARLY WASHED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AOA 105 SO WILL EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND...TO THE TUNE OF 600 DAM. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN THE RIDGE REACHES PEAK INTENSITY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...OR TO THE SOUTH.
DESPITE 594 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES OF 579-582 DAM...925 MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY COOL IN
THE MID 20S C. THEREFORE WAS A BIT CAUTIOUS ON HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS
PERIOD - KEEPING THEM ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EVEN MID 90S
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN PLACES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO SETTLE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S OR A BIT ABOVE 100 ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME. DEW POINTS THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...SO HEAT INDICES WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AND ESPECIALLY IF HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HEAT ADVISORIES AND HEAT WARNINGS ARE
MORE LIKELY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION...STABILIZING
THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE OUTFLOW NEAR KTUP...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT KTUP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER I CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AT KJBR BUT
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT KMEM AND CB AT KMKL AND KTUP.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
NORTH AT ALL SITES.
RRH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 77 94 77 94 / 40 40 20 20
MKL 73 93 72 93 / 30 30 20 20
JBR 75 90 74 95 / 40 40 20 20
TUP 76 97 76 95 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE
AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TIPPAH-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SHELBY.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 7:05 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 705 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141345- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 705 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHERRY VALLEY ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TO BOONEVILLE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHERRY VALLEY ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TO BOONEVILLE MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BORGHOFF
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 2:41 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
MSZ017-024-132015-
MONROE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
241 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER AMORY AT 241 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
ABERDEEN AND AMORY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
&&
LAT...LON 3386 8823 3381 8823 3379 8824 3374 8856
3407 8862 3412 8832 3392 8822 3386 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 339DEG 10KT 3400 8845
RRHSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 4:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 429 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 MSZ013-021-022-132145- YALOBUSHA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-CALHOUN MS- 429 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR... NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF BANNER AT 430 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...LAFAYETTE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. && LAT...LON 3394 8942 3405 8962 3421 8949 3409 8932 TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 040DEG 1KT 3408 8948
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 6:21 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
MSZ002-013>015-022-132345-
UNION MS-PONTOTOC MS-MARSHALL MS-LAFAYETTE MS-CALHOUN MS-
621 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF DENMARK AT 621 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PONTOTOC AND UNION
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOLLY SPRINGS NATIONAL FOREST AND
OXFORD...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
&&
LAT...LON 3412 8948 3418 8951 3419 8951 3419 8953
3451 8973 3456 8924 3427 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 233DEG 9KT 3433 8939The office that day
Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 7:11 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MEG | Lafayette | 34 min |
| Jul 13, 7:12 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Calhoun, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola, Pontotoc, Union and 1 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2011Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.