Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 538, NWS Memphis, TN

June 16, 2011Cross County, St. Francis County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2011, 7:13 PM CDT for Cross County, St. Francis County, Arkansas. It was in force for 15 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2011, 7:13 PM CDT (00:13 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2011, 7:28 PM CDT
In force: 15 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Cross County, AR, St. Francis County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 16, 4:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2821 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1299 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 342 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.9
Supercell composite: 25.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

227 
WUUS54 KMEG 170013 RRA
SVRMEG
ARC037-123-170100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0538.110617T0013Z-110617T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
713 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF WHEATLEY...OR 7 MILES WEST OF PALESTINE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST
  CITY...MADISON...PALESTINE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 9105 3509 9105 3523 9055 3494 9052
      3491 9083 3491 9107 3492 9109 3488 9110
      3488 9111 3501 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 258DEG 26KT 3499 9103

$$

30/SIRMON

1 follow-up statement

291 
WWUS54 KMEG 170028
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
728 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARC037-123-170038-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0538.000000T0000Z-110617T0100Z/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
728 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CROSS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 728 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

LAT...LON 3501 9105 3509 9105 3523 9055 3494 9052
      3491 9083 3491 9107 3492 9109 3488 9110
      3488 9111 3501 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 258DEG 26KT 3501 9090

$$

30/SIRMON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 2:59 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 2:59 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF THE TWO MCS IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHILE SECOND MCS IS EXITING SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SECTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN OF
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS SOME AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY AND
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE HOT
AND HUMIND WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER STARTING TUESDAY WITH
READINGS APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (16/18Z-17/18Z)

LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME. KEPT IN CB AT KMEM AND KTUP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT NEARBY AND AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWEST AR SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...STILL THINK
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
TIMING OF TEMPO TSRA FOR TONIGHT AS IN EARLIER TAFS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LESS THAN DESIRED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...5-8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY FROM THE S AND SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  95  78  96 /  30  10  10  10
MKL  72  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
JBR  73  94  75  96 /  30  10  10  10
TUP  73  96  74  97 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 3:32 PM CDT, 3 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-172245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS WITH
PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY DAY BEING SUNDAY AS HEAT INDEX READINGS RISE TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 4:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
06/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KRM

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             NEUHARDT                35.06N 90.33W
06/16/2011  E0.88 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     HAIL             NEUHARDT                35.06N 90.33W
06/16/2011  E1.75 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPTO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN NEUHARDT.

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             1 S WALCOTT             36.02N 90.67W
06/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 141.

0540 PM     HAIL             5 W MARIANNA            34.77N 90.85W
06/16/2011  E1.50 INCH       LEE                AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 79

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
559 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             SARDIS                  34.43N 89.91W
06/16/2011  E0.88 INCH       PANOLA             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
06/16/2011                   DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN KENNETT

0555 PM     HAIL             NEUHARDT                35.06N 90.33W
06/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NOW IN NEUHARDT.

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:53 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW KENNETT           36.22N 90.10W
06/16/2011                   DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FARM SHOPT LOST ROOF AND BACK WALL NEAR COUNTY ROAD 535
            AND HWY Y.

0625 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E WARDELL             36.35N 89.78W
06/16/2011                   PEMISCOT           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSBILE TORNADO...MAYBE DAMAGE...LAW ENFORCEMENT
            RESPONDING TO SITE.

0649 PM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
06/16/2011  E0.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:56 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
06/16/2011  E0.88 INCH       DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR HACKS CROSS AND OLD 78.

&&

TLSJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 7:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Mississippi	3 hr
Jun 16, 9:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips	51 min
Jun 16, 9:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Phillips	47 min
Jun 16, 9:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Phillips	31 min
Jun 16, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Phillips	37 min
Jun 17, 1:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	36 min
Jun 17, 1:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	33 min
Jun 17, 2:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Greene, Mississippi	42 min
Jun 17, 3:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	18 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.