Severe Thunderstorm Warning 477, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW ROUGHLY LOCATED
FROM NEAR WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. EVENTUALLY...EXPECT
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CWA AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. WILL
KEEP 40 POPS UP NORTH WITH 20S TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AREA BY SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WILL NOT
REALLY SEE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
WEAKEST BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MAY
REMOVE POPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
70S.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AND MAY
BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME RELIEF BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE RIDGE
AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...GIVEN RADAR TRENDS
AND THE APPROACH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IT APPEARS THAT
KJBR PROBABLY STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SO
ADDED VCTS TO THAT TERMINAL. THE CU FIELD IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE
DEVELOPING OVER NE MS SO KTUP PROBABLY HAS THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR
TSRAS WITH KMEM AND KMKL IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF A CB FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP. OTRW
EXPECT THE TYPICAL LIGHT FOG/HAZE AT THE SITES...EXCEPT
KMEM...LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING SHIFTING WEST WINDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10
MKL  67  91  67  93 /  30  20  20  20
JBR  66  92  70  96 /  40  20  20  10
TUP  70  96  71  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-120845-
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
430 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             2 W PIGGOTT             36.38N 90.24W
06/11/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS QUARTER SIZED AND SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL ON COUNTY
            ROAD 272 APPROX 2 MILES WEST OF PIGGOTT.

&&

MRM