Severe Thunderstorm Warning 474, NWS Memphis, TN

525 
WWUS54 KMEG 092013
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC155-TNC095-092023-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0474.000000T0000Z-110609T2030Z/
PEMISCOT MO-LAKE TN-
313 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE AND EASTERN
PEMISCOT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 313 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3622 8948 3618 8951 3618 8962 3614 8958
      3612 8960 3609 8968 3604 8968 3602 8971
      3610 8987 3634 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 219DEG 6KT 3615 8967

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
103 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011/

UPDATE...

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND IS SPREADING NORTHWARD. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT COULD CREEP INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO READINGS
AT THIS POINT YESTERDAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD
INCREASE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. INCREASED SKY COVERAGE A BIT
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

CCD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011/

CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE DELTA REGION
AND LOWER 70S FURTHER EAST. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ACROSS
THE AREA.

TODAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH NEAR 4000 CAPE AND
INCREASING PW'S COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME HEATING
INDUCED CONVECTION. MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE WERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES GOING FORWARD AND HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT
DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE HIGHER AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASS BY THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY THURSDAY MODELS INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.

CDG

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TSRAS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LITTLE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL LEAVE THE CB MENTION AT KTUP. WINDS WILL BE
SW AROUND 10 KTS DIMINISHING AFT 10/01Z AND REDEVELOPING AGAIN BY
10/17Z.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  95  75  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
MKL  94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
JBR  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
TUP  95  70  94  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-101015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
314 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER
THE REGION. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
147 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOZ115-TNZ001-091915-
PEMISCOT MO-LAKE TN-
147 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER CARUTHERSVILLE AT 148 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAKE AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
CARUTHERSVILLE AND HAYTI...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 8942 3618 8957 3618 8962 3616 8960
      3610 8967 3618 8984 3642 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 212DEG 3KT 3621 8969