Severe Thunderstorm Warning 463, NWS Memphis, TN

122 
WWUS54 KMEG 260254
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
954 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

TNC023-260304-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0463.000000T0000Z-110526T0330Z/
CHESTER TN-
954 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 954 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3573 8802 3561 8802 3555 8797 3549 8807
      3545 8831 3581 8833 3583 8825 3582 8818
      3584 8817 3586 8803 3583 8801 3582 8797
      3580 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 248DEG 52KT 3567 8810

$$

TNC039-077-260330-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0463.000000T0000Z-110526T0330Z/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
954 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN HENDERSON AND DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 954 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PARSONS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST...MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SCOTTS
HILL...SUGAR TREE...COZETTE...JEANNETTE...BIBLE HILL...HICKORY
FORKS...BUSSELTOWN...PERRYVILLE...MOUNT TABOR...WILKINSTOWN...
BEACON...GARRETT...MOUNT LEBANON AND LARGO.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR PIN OAK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8802 3561 8802 3555 8797 3549 8807
      3545 8831 3581 8833 3583 8825 3582 8818
      3584 8817 3586 8803 3583 8801 3582 8797
      3580 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 248DEG 52KT 3567 8810

$$

886 
WWUS54 KMEG 260329
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

TNC039-077-260339-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0463.000000T0000Z-110526T0330Z/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
1029 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HENDERSON AND DECATUR
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1029 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AND WEAKENED. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3573 8802 3561 8802 3555 8797 3549 8807
      3545 8831 3581 8833 3583 8825 3582 8818
      3584 8817 3586 8803 3583 8801 3582 8797
      3580 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 248DEG 52KT 3586 8752

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
916 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL/EAST ARKANSAS. KNQA WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE FINALLY TRANSITIONED OVER TO A QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. /QLCS/ THIS LINE EXTENDS FROM AROUND
PARIS TO JACKSON TENNESSEE THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO TUTWILER
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP
BETWEEN 8-9 C/KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6 TO -7...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60
KTS AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 350-400
M2/S2 SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF
THIS LINE. HOWEVER...LCL/S THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HAVE REMAINED ON
THE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SIDE AROUND 4KFT WHICH MAY HAVE LIMITED
SOME OF THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...A
DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS. ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TRIM BACK THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEHIND THE
LINE...WILL KEEP VERY LOW END POPS IN AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

WILL UPDATE GRIDS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 535 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

.SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK GRADUALLY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN
MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST ARKANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE/REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST ONE TO TWO HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LINE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4PM CDT
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A VERY VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
C/KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3000-3500 J/KG...LI/S
BETWEEN -8 TO -9...0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES BETWEEN 350-400
M2/S2...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KTS...AND CURVED
HODOGRAPHS STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG/LONG TRACK
TORNADOES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS MAY BEGIN TO CONGEAL INTO A QUASI- LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. /QLCS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
TORNADOES SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE MODE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A
QLCS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM WIND TRENDS BUT AT THIS
TIME PLANNING TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT.

A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID DAY THURSDAY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
STATE LINE AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE MID SOUTH.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...LI/S APPROACHING
-8...MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-40
KTS...FAVOR THE POTENTIAL OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. KEPT HIGH
END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO COME TO AND END BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM FRONT AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS OF THE MID SOUTH
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH OF I-40 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW AT BEST.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE
WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN 22-24C. MODELS DO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS AS THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

CJC
&&
.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS COVERED WELL IN TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT...HOWEVER A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SWING
AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SWC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  66  77  59  82 /  80  30  10  10
MKL  66  76  54  79 /  80  40  10  10
JBR  63  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
TUP  70  82  58  82 /  80  60  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
925 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
925 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO TUTWILER MISSISSIPPI. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR OSCEOLA...AND ALONG THE ST FRANCIS RIVER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ON
THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MOST
OF THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BACKWATER TRIBUTARY FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MEMPHIS

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             UNION CITY              36.42N 89.05W
05/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       OBION              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TLSJR/JAB/KSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
05/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT SUMMER AND RALEIGH LAGRANGE
            ROAD.

0917 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SE JACKSON            35.58N 88.77W
05/25/2011  E60.00 MPH       MADISON            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
929 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIPTONVILLE             36.38N 89.47W
05/25/2011                   LAKE               TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN TIPTONVILLE AREA.
            STURCTURAL DAMAGE TO AN APARTMENT.

&&

TLSJR/JAB/KSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARIS                   36.30N 88.31W
05/25/2011                   HENRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N PARIS               36.36N 88.31W
05/25/2011                   HENRY              TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD BETWEEN PARIS AND PURYEAR...HEADING
            NE TOWARD PARIS LANDING.

&&

TLSJR/JAB/KSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARIS                   36.30N 88.31W
05/25/2011                   HENRY              TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROOF DAMAGED ON SEVERAL HOUSES.

&&

TLSJR/JAB/KSP