Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Memphis, TN

208 
WWUS54 KMEG 022101
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TNC039-071-022130-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-110502T2130Z/
DECATUR TN-HARDIN TN-
401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARDIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SWIFT...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAVANNAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GUMDALE...
BATH SPRINGS...SWIFT AND CERRO GORDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8799 3539 8802 3537 8801 3528 8818
      3537 8820 3555 8798 3552 8796 3549 8797
      3547 8802 3544 8804 3543 8798 3540 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 244DEG 29KT 3536 8808

$$

502 
WWUS54 KMEG 022134
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TNC039-071-022143-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-110502T2130Z/
DECATUR TN-HARDIN TN-
434 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARDIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 433 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3538 8799 3539 8802 3537 8801 3528 8818
      3537 8820 3555 8798 3552 8796 3549 8797
      3547 8802 3544 8804 3543 8798 3540 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 244DEG 29KT 3536 8808

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN AREAL FLOODING...FLASH FLOOD AND ONGOING
RIVER FLOODING REMAIN THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MORE ON THE HYDRO PROBLEM BELOW. WE ARE ALSO
DEALING WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. A TROUGH
WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY SO IT MAY NOT BE COINCIDE WITH THE BEST DAYTIME
HEATING LIKE YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS AT
TUPELO AND CORNITH REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S...BUT DROP OFF QUICKLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO TENNESSEE. 0-3 KM HELICITY IS
RESPECTABLE...AROUND 150 M/S^2...WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AT BIRMINGHAM...BUT QUITE A BIT WEAKER
AT JACKSON...AND LAPSE CIN IS NEAR ZERO NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BUT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. RAIN WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TOMORROW. AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTS INTO ALABAMA.

WE WILL FINALLY GET A SERIES OF DRY DAYS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER OUR FLOOD CONCERNS ARE FAR FROM OVER. AREA
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...AND AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RISES...TRIBUTARIES WILL BEGIN TO BACK UP AS WATER HAS NO PLACE TO
GO. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

30/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILTIES. CONDITIONS WILL START IMPROVING AT
KJBR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTUP WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.

ARS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FOUR TO TWELVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE SUNDAY WITH
THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. FLASH
FLOODING...AREAL FLOODING FROM POOR DRAINAGE AND SATURATED SOILS
AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING ALL REMAIN VERY HIGH CONCERNS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATION. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL LIKELY APPROACH...POSSIBLY EXCEED RECORD
LEVELS AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. FLOODING OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS
NOT BEEN OBSERVED IN THE MEMPHIS AREA IN MOST OF OUR
LIFETIMES...NEARLY 75 YEARS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE ADVANCED COMPUTER
MODELS TO HELP US DETERMINE AREAS ARE PRONE TO FLOODING THE FEAR
OF THE UNKNOWN IS VALID AND CITIZENS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
ANY WATCHES...WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS OTHER OFFICIAL AGENCIES.

BASED ON DISCUSSION WITH THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS...THEY DO NOT FEEL
LIKE ANY UPSTREAM OPERATIONS AT THE BIRD POINT LEVEE WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT AT MEMPHIS...AND ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT IF ANY UPSTREAM
AT TIPTONVILLE AND CARUTHERSVILLE. THE RELEASE OF WATER FROM
BEHIND THE LEVEE WILL SIMPLY NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL WATER TO THE
RIVER SYSTEM...JUST CHANGE THE PATH THAT THE WATER TAKES GETTING
INTO THE RIVER SYSTEM. THANKS TO THE CORPS FOR A FANTASTIC
DISCUSSION EARLIER TODAY.

30/SIRMON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  61  48  65  48 / 100 100  60  10
MKL  63  49  61  39 / 100 100  70  10
JBR  52  46  64  44 / 100 100  50  10
TUP  83  54  61  44 /  60  90  80  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-032300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
348 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ADDITIONAL
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING...AND
AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING OR RESULT IN NEW RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM HELENA-WEST HELENA
ARKANSAS TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW EVENING
AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING...OR RESULT IN
NEW RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HELENA-WEST HELENA ARKANSAS TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE.

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS
ON LEVEES. SIGNIFICANT...POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AS
RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1119 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS        35.13N 90.05W
05/02/2011                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS AROUND TOWN HAVE BEEN FLOODED AND AT
            LEAST PARTIALLY CLOSED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FLOODING. THIRD
            AND GASTON...NORTH PARKWAY AND WATKINS...NORTH PARKWAY
            AND CLEVELAND...RALEIGH MILLINGTON AND JONES...INTERSTATE
            55 AND BROOKS...MILBRANCH AND SHELBY DRIVE...NORTH
            PARKWAY AND STONEWALL...NORTH HIGHLAND AND GIVEN...

0815 AM     FLOOD            WEST MEMPHIS            35.15N 90.18W
05/02/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER BACKING INTO BELVEDERE STREET FROM STORM DRAINS.

0909 AM     FLOOD            TRUMANN                 35.67N 90.52W
05/02/2011                   POINSETT           AR   PUBLIC

            HIGHWATER HAS CLOSED HIGHWAY 69 IN TOWN

&&

MRM