Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Memphis, TN

405 
WWUS54 KMEG 260332
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1032 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

MSC027-107-119-135-137-143-260415-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-110426T0415Z/
TUNICA MS-TATE MS-PANOLA MS-COAHOMA MS-QUITMAN MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
1032 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN TALLAHATCHIE...QUITMAN...SOUTHEASTERN COAHOMA...
PANOLA...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TATE AND SOUTHEASTERN TUNICA
COUNTIES...

AT 1032 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LONGTOWN TO ESSEX TO
17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOBO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SENATOBIA TO 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARKSDALE TO 6 MILES
WEST OF SHELBY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BATESVILLE...
BELEN...BOBO...BRAZIL...CLARKSDALE...COMO...COURTLAND...CRENSHAW...
CROWDER...CURTIS STATION...DARLING...DENTON...DUBLIN AND FALCON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9046 3398 9046 3398 9065 3399 9066
      3411 9067 3412 9070 3413 9072 3433 9048
      3457 9032 3456 8971 3433 8973 3380 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 268DEG 42KT 3453 9014 3433 9028
          3394 9086

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK / EXTENDED FLOODING EVENT
ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...

GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MIDAFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
INTO TWO LINEAR CLUSTERS. EXPECT THE TWO LINEAR CLUSTERS TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SOLID QLCS BY THE TIME IT ENTERS EASTERN AR
EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH
INTO TORNADO WATCH 205... BASED ON PROXIMITY TO THE LEADING
CLUSTER OF STORMS.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXPECT POST SQUALL LINE COLD OUTFLOW POOL TO
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY... WITH A WARM FRONT LIKELY LIFTING INTO THE
TO THE I40 CORRIDOR BY NOON... AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT... REPRESENTING AN AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE HELICITY...BUT EXPECT ENHANCED
HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY IMPROVES MARKEDLY BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WITH A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT... TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHEAST AR.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD REPRESENT AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT FOR
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND EVEN THE MEMPHIS METRO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ECMWF CONCURS... BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN EITHER MODEL. GIVEN THE NEAR CONCURRENT
NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...HAVE STUCK WITH A MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION TO THE
MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO.

EXPECT A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE TO FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
LIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A SHARP MIDLEVEL TROF. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS... QLCS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL... FEW CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...PARTICULARLY
OVER AREAS SUCH AS FAR NORTHEAST AR THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP
TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIKELY FALL TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON OR ABOUT SUNDAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER AR WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A
CONSOLIDATED LINE OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST HRRR
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NOT MAKE INTO MEM UNTIL
04Z OR 05Z. THIS TIMING MAY NEED TO BE MOVED FORWARD AN HOUR IF
A CONVECTIVE BOW BECOMES DOMINATE OVER SOUTHERN AR.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  81  67  75 / 100  60  90 100
MKL  65  80  67  75 / 100  70  90 100
JBR  62  78  60  70 / 100  60  90  90
TUP  66  84  71  76 /  80  60  80 100

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LAKE-OBION.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261645-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
346 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER AREAS TO THE WEST OF A UNION CITY TO JACKSON TENNESSEE... TO
CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE.

STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MODERATE
RISK AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHER THREATS ACROSS ALL
THE MIDSOUTH INCLUDE VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING STRAIT LINE WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO TOPPLE LARGE TREES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TUPELO MISSISSIPPI TO GLENDORA
MISSISSIPPI. SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF
STRONG LONG TRACKED TORNADOES LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF
TORNADOES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE DELTA.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE MIDSOUTH...RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSULT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR DETAILS.

AREA RIVERS WILL RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS ON LEVEES.
SIGNIFICANT... POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TORNADO          4 SW ALAMO              35.74N 89.17W
04/25/2011                   CROCKETT           TN   STORM CHASER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN JOHNSON GROVE RD AND HWY 88.
            DAMAGE TO TWO HOUSES AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1015 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TORNADO          2 N FAIR OAKS           35.26N 91.03W
04/25/2011                   CROSS              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN FAIR OAKS AND TILTON, TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VANNDALE                35.32N 90.78W
04/25/2011                   CROSS              AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            VOLUNTEER FIRE TRUCK BLOWN OFF ROAD INTO DITCH. WINDS
            ESTIMATED AT 70-75MPH.

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CARAWAY             35.77N 90.33W
04/25/2011                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD SIGNS BLOWN OVER ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 135 ONE MILE
            NORTH OF CARAWAY. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60-70MPH.

&&

JAB