River Flood Warning 82, NWS Memphis, TN

715 
WGUS84 KMEG 231851
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
151 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE S.F. FORK FORKED DEER
RIVER NEAR HALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

TNC033-045-097-231921-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110524T0243Z/
/HLST1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
151 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  S.F. FORK FORKED DEER RIVER NEAR HALLS
* AT 01 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* AT 8.5 FEET...WATER IS PONDING ON LOW LYING FARM LAND.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MCS WAS IN THE DECAYING STAGES NORTH OF I40 AT DISCUSSION TIME.
THIS FEATURE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH MS.

WILL EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR NORTHEAST AR.

AN INITIALLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER
TODAY...WITH A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DRIVE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH. WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP BY
MIDAFTERNOON IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR. SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE
OF LITTLE HELP HERE. SYNOPTICALLY... THE 06Z NAM BRINGS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP STORMS FIRE OVER THE WEAKLY CAPPED HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN OK/AR/SOUTHERN MO...THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE EAST. AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY EVENING... A SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A COLD POOL CAN BE ESTABLISHED...
RESULTING IN STORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST AR. OVERALL... FEW CHANGES
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF I40
TODAY... WITH ISOLATED CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS FAR NORTHERN MS.

TUESDAY MAY SEE BETTER STORM CHANCES DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPMENT PUSHES THE MAIN STORM TRACK TOO FAR
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MO. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH MODERATE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...THE
MIDSOUTH WILL SEE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES... LIKELY
PEAKING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. AT THIS
EARLY TIME...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL/LINEAR MCS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS DEPARTED FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND. LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH MODELS NOW TAKE A MUCH
WEAKER OPEN WAVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... WHILE
DEVELOPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARMER...DRIER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY...LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF SET. LINGERING SHOWERS FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OR PUSH EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A BREAK AS
ATMOPSHERE IS PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CAN/T
RULE OUT A FEW TSRAS DEVELOPING ALONG LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR TSRAS MAY
OCCUR AROUND LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
CONVECTION THAT WILL LKLY DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. WINDS ARE VERY VARIABLE AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD BECOME S OR
SSW AT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED BY 18Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  85  70  87  72 /  30  30  10  10
MKL  85  67  86  69 /  40  30  20  20
JBR  82  67  84  70 /  50  50  20  20
TUP  90  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
314 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI LINE. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER... AND ALONG THE ST FRANCIS RIVER SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. BACKWATER FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG SOME
TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY OVER AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MOST
OF THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BACKWATER TRIBUTARY FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

PWB