River Flood Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

005 
WGUS84 KMEG 080311
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER...TOMBIGBEE 
RIVER...TOMBIGBEE RIVER .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC095-090311-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0014.110309T2235Z-110311T0000Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.110309T2235Z.110310T0600Z.110310T1800Z.NO/
911 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER  AT BIGBEE
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 06 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 15.5 FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER PORTIONS OF HOOD ROAD AND 
  EXTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING

$$

MSC095-090311-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0015.110309T1509Z-110310T2221Z/
/AMYM6.1.ER.110309T1509Z.110310T0000Z.110310T1621Z.NO/
911 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR AMORY
* FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 07 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 23.0 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 23.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 23.0 FEET...MOST LOW LAND AND FARM LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS 
  FLOODED. EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER 
  GROUND

$$

MSC087-095-090311-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0016.110310T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110310T0600Z.110312T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
911 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 07 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 12.7 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED

$$

564 
WGUS84 KMEG 081439
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER and the 
TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC095-091439-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0014.110309T2256Z-110311T0500Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.110309T2256Z.110310T1200Z.110310T2300Z.NO/
839 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER  AT BIGBEE
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 6 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 15.8 FEET THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER PORTIONS OF HOOD ROAD AND 
  EXTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING

$$

MSC095-091439-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0015.110309T1509Z-110311T0234Z/
/AMYM6.1.ER.110309T1509Z.110310T0600Z.110310T2034Z.NO/
839 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR AMORY
* FROM TOMORROW LATE MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 23.6 FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 23.6 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 23.0 FEET...MOST LOW LAND AND FARM LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS 
  FLOODED. EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER 
  GROUND

$$

MSC087-095-091439-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.110309T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110309T0600Z.110312T1800Z.110314T0000Z.NO/
839 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 13.7 FEET SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 14.0 FEET...FLOOD WATER BEGINS TO COVER AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED ON 
  THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARMLAND LAND NEAR THE RIVER 
  ALSO BEGINS TO FLOOD

$$

089 
WGUS84 KMEG 090255
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER...TOMBIGBEE 
RIVER...TOMBIGBEE RIVER .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC095-100255-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0014.110309T2235Z-110311T0527Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.110309T2235Z.110310T1200Z.110310T2327Z.NO/
855 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER  AT BIGBEE
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 06 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 15.8 FEET THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER PORTIONS OF HOOD ROAD AND 
  EXTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING

$$

MSC095-100255-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0015.110309T1455Z-110311T0234Z/
/AMYM6.1.ER.110309T1455Z.110310T0600Z.110310T2034Z.NO/
855 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR AMORY
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 07 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 23.6 FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE NEAR 23.6 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 23.0 FEET...MOST LOW LAND AND FARM LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS 
  FLOODED. EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER 
  GROUND

$$

MSC087-095-100255-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.110309T0253Z-110313T2248Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110312T1800Z.110313T1648Z.NO/
855 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 07 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 13.7 FEET SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE 
  RISING TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 14.0 FEET...FLOOD WATER BEGINS TO COVER AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED ON 
  THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARMLAND LAND NEAR THE RIVER 
  ALSO BEGINS TO FLOOD

$$

894 
WGUS84 KMEG 091503
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
903 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER AND 
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC095-101503-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0014.110309T2207Z-110310T2327Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.110309T2207Z.110310T0600Z.110310T1727Z.NO/
903 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER  AT BIGBEE
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 15.5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER PORTIONS OF HOOD ROAD AND 
  EXTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING

$$

MSC095-101503-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110311T0000Z/
/AMYM6.1.ER.110309T1751Z.110310T0600Z.110310T1800Z.NO/
903 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR AMORY
* FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 22.4 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 22.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* AT 23.0 FEET...MOST LOW LAND AND FARM LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS 
  FLOODED. EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK MAY NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER 
  GROUND

$$

MSC087-095-101503-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110312T0000Z.110314T2300Z.NO/
903 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 17.8 FEET FRIDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.8 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING THEN BEGIN 
  FALLING BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THE 14TH. 
  AT 18.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER AIRBASE ROAD ON THE WEST BANK
  OF THE RIVER

$$
MM

692 
WGUS84 KMEG 100312
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
912 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN...AND
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...AT BIGBEE AND NEAR AMORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC095-102230-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110310T2230Z/
/BGBM6.1.ER.110309T1818Z.110309T2330Z.110310T1630Z.NO/
912 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BIGBEE
* UNTIL TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* AT 06 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* AT 14.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AGRICLTURAL LAND IS OCCURRING.

$$

MSC095-101953-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110310T1953Z/
/AMYM6.1.ER.110309T1505Z.110309T2215Z.110310T1353Z.NO/
912 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR AMORY
* UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 07 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* AT 22.0 FEET...LOW LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS FLOODED.

$$

MSC087-095-110312-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110313T2200Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110312T0600Z.110313T1600Z.NO/
912 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 07 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 14.8 FEET EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.8 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 13.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED.

$$

663 
WGUS84 KMEG 101506
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
906 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-111506-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T1048Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110312T0000Z.110314T0448Z.NO/
906 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 7 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 17.3 FEET TOMORROW EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL 
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED

$$

222 
WGUS84 KMEG 110113
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
713 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-120113-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T1000Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110312T0000Z.110314T0400Z.NO/
713 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 07 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 16.2 FEET TOMORROW EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL 
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MARCH 14 BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED.

$$

144 
WGUS84 KMEG 110311
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-120311-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T1000Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110312T0000Z.110314T0400Z.NO/
911 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 07 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 16.2 FEET TOMORROW EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL 
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MARCH 13 BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED.

$$

925 
WGUS84 KMEG 111409
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
809 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-121409-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T0400Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1800Z.110313T2200Z.NO/
809 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 07 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 16.8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL 
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.8 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 18.0 FEET...WATER IS FLOWING OVER AIRBASE ROAD ON THE WEST BANK
  OF THE RIVER

$$

546 
WGUS84 KMEG 120151
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
751 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-130151-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T0224Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1400Z.110313T2024Z.NO/
751 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON MARCH 13.
* AT 07 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED.

$$

349 
WGUS84 KMEG 121438
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-131437-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T0224Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1400Z.110313T2024Z.NO/
837 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* AT 07 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED

$$

728 
WGUS84 KMEG 130155
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-140155-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T0824Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1400Z.110314T0224Z.NO/
755 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL TOMORROW LATE EVENING.
* AT 07 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* AT 15.0 FEET...WATER IS COVERING A PORTION OF AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED
  ON THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARM LAND IS FLOODED.

$$

802 
WGUS84 KMEG 131439
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-141200-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T1200Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1400Z.110314T0600Z.NO/
939 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 8 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND WILL DROP BELOW 13 FEET BY EARLY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* AT 14.0 FEET...FLOOD WATER BEGINS TO COVER AIRBASE ROAD LOCATED ON 
  THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER. LOW LYING FARMLAND LAND NEAR THE RIVER 
  ALSO BEGINS TO FLOOD

$$

752 
WGUS84 KMEG 140152
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
852 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-141008-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T1008Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1400Z.110314T0408Z.NO/
852 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* THROUGH TONIGHT.
* AT 08 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS FLOODED.

$$

007 
WGUS84 KMEG 140710
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
210 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN AND IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

MSC087-095-140740-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110314T1008Z/
/ABDM6.1.ER.110308T2009Z.110311T1400Z.110314T0320Z.NO/
210 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  BUTTAHATCHIE RIVER NEAR ABERDEEN
* AT 12 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET.
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* FORECAST STAGE OF 11.2 FEET EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 12.0 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS FLOODED

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
600 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS
HAS HELPED TO LOCK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A RATHER STOUT LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 3KFT...AS OBSERVED FROM
REGIONAL SOUNDING ANALYSIS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE MIXING AND ERODE THE STRATUS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF WHERE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL LOWER THAN DESIRED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WORDING THIS MORNING AREAWIDE
THEN GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND EAST. IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
BREAKS UP...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
PERSIST. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW LATEST
GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
THEREFORE...CUT NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
THIS MORNING OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TODAY AND BE
POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
ARKLATEX LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE TO THE
NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION INCREASES MARKEDLY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ROOTED IN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE AVERAGE. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. CONSIDERING
THAT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW AND AREA RIVERS REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WILL LIKELY NEED A FLOOD WATCH IN LATER
FORECASTS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIMITED DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTHWARD.

AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD TO
AT LEAST THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO QUICKLY RECOVER AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD
ERUPT OVER THE WARM SECTOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE
MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF A QUASI LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS)/SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD
POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE MUCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEED 6.5C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDS 65 KTS.
IN ADDITION...0-1KM SRH WILL EXCEED 250M2/S2 AS WELL ACROSS THE
PRE FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THERE STILL IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT/TIMING OF
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THEREFORE BEST ASSESSMENT AT THIS TIME IS
THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM MEMPHIS
POINTS SOUTH AND WEST WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ONCE AGAIN...THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES.

THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GROW UPSCALE
AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXIST PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT STALLS TO THE
NORTH. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FROM NEXT WEEKEND ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RETROGRADING WEST...COURTESY OF LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MVFR
CONDITIONS /CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500FT/ ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION AS OF 12Z...IS AT MKL WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST UP INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AT THE SAME TIME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE. NONETHELESS...SHORT
TERM TRENDS SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
THEREAFTER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  43  61  58 /   0  10  80 100
MKL  49  39  61  55 /   0  10  60 100
JBR  51  41  57  53 /   0  20  90 100
TUP  54  40  63  57 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081830-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1017 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALTHOUGH
AN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
AREAS IMPACTED. THEREFORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST MAY BE
NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVERS REMAIN
SWOLLEN FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SOIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ALREADY SATURATED. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY IN
LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.