Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

214 
WGUS54 KMEG 242332
FFWMEG
ARC021-031-055-075-093-121-MOC069-250245-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110225T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST

* AT 531 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
  HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK
  ROCK...BONO...BROOKLAND...CORNING...GOSNELL...HOXIE...LEACHVILLE...
  MARMADUKE...PARAGOULD...PIGGOTT...POCAHONTAS...RECTOR...WALNUT
  RIDGE AND CAMPBELL.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BIG LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8997 3589 9136 3623 9136 3625 9133
      3625 9127 3632 9127 3641 9132 3642 9136
      3646 9137 3649 9142 3651 9023 3655 9020
      3660 9020 3663 9017 3664 8996

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

UPDATE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED FROM FORREST CITY AR...TO WEST
MEMPHIS AR...TO MILLINGTON TN...TO JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL IS ALREADY
SITTING AT 68 DEGREES. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
JUMP INTO THE 70S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GET
CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SUPERCELLS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

KRM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

SEEMS LIKE THE COLD AND SNOWY MID SOUTH WINTER OF 2010-11 IS IN
THE DISTANT PAST. THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH
TWO POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
IN PROGRESS ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WERE OCCURRING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPPER AND
LOW LEVEL JET POSITIONS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 350-425
M2/S2 ARE IN LINE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. MUCAPE
VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG SHOULD BE ADEQUATE GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES.
EXPECT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SQUALL LINE IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT
TIME FRAMES. ALL TYPES ARE SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE AND THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS STRONG /EF2 OR EF3/ TORNADOES. THE MOST
FAVORABLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST FOR EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED REGION WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. STORM TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ZONAL H5 FLOW FOLLOWS THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A POWERFUL H5 UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM ABOUT TO IMPACT THE MID SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SECOND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...H5 ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OKULSKI

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

A WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG INTERSTATE 40 ATTM. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTN...INCLUDING KMEM AND KTUP...CIGS WILL BE MVFR WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHRAS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. NORTH OF THE
FRONT CIGS ARE IFR WITH SCT SHRAS AND EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. AS
THE FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KMKL
THOUGH KJBR WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CONDS ALL AFTN SINCE THE
FRONT MAY NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL EVENING.

BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO SW KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE
A POTENT MID LEVEL TROF PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT
TSRAS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH STARTING AROUND 24/23Z AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRAS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. TSRAS WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY 25/03Z AT KJBR AND 06Z AT KTUP WITH LEFTOVER
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND GUSTY NW WINDS.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  45  51  37 /  80 100  10   0
MKL  72  45  50  37 / 100 100  10   0
JBR  64  40  47  35 / 100  90  10   0
TUP  80  53  59  38 /  60 100  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
915 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
915 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
A WARM FRONT TODAY NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY BORDERS AND WITH
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH CAN
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING MORE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLACK ROCK              36.11N 91.11W
02/24/2011                   LAWRENCE           AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3.61 INCHES OF RAIN.

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARUTHERSVILLE          36.18N 89.67W
02/24/2011                   PEMISCOT           MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2.5 INCHES OF RAIN

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
02/24/2011                   LAWRENCE           AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2.53 INCHES OF RAIN.

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
02/24/2011                   DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY Y BETWEEN KENNETT AND CARUTH IS FLOODED ALONG

            WITH HIGHWAY 164 IN HORNERSVILLE AND HIGHWAY P IN SENATH.

&&

CCD