Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Memphis, TN

666 
WGUS74 KMEG 241104
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
504 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

MOC155-TNC045-053-079-095-131-183-241200-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110224T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEMISCOT MO-GIBSON TN-HENRY TN-WEAKLEY TN-LAKE TN-OBION TN-DYER TN-
504 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST FOR
NORTHERN DYER...OBION...LAKE...WEAKLEY...HENRY...NORTHWESTERN GIBSON
AND EASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTIES...

AT 504 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CARUTHERSVILLE...HAYWARD...MARTIN...PARIS...UNION CITY...STEWART...
STANLEY...STUBTOWN...COTTONWOOD POINT...TYLER...PARIS LANDING STATE
PARK AND REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8808 3626 8808 3616 8816 3608 8941
      3598 8972 3600 8979 3641 8968 3642 8961
      3636 8954 3646 8956 3651 8953 3650 8949
      3646 8949 3645 8946 3651 8941 3650 8804
      3643 8804 3637 8799

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEEMS LIKE THE COLD AND SNOWY MID SOUTH WINTER OF 2010-11 IS IN
THE DISTANT PAST. THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH
TWO POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
IN PROGRESS ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WERE OCCURRING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPPER AND
LOW LEVEL JET POSITIONS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 350-425
M2/S2 ARE IN LINE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. MUCAPE
VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG SHOULD BE ADEQUATE GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES.
EXPECT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SQUALL LINE IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT
TIME FRAMES. ALL TYPES ARE SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE AND THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS STRONG /EF2 OR EF3/ TORNADOES. THE MOST
FAVORABLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST FOR EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED REGION WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. STORM TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ZONAL H5 FLOW FOLLOWS THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A POWERFUL H5 UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM ABOUT TO IMPACT THE MID SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SECOND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...H5 ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OKULSKI

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN 850 MB FRONT STRETCHES FROM JBR
TO DYR AND HZD AS OF 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND
12Z WHEN A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO BOUNCE FROM
VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS
BY 24/12Z. MENTIONED CB IN MORNING SHOWERS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...BEST TIMING FOR
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS TO TAF SITES IS ANTICIPATED TO BE 24/22Z-25/00Z
FOR JBR...24/23Z-25/01Z FOR MEM...25/00-02Z FOR MKL...AND
25/01-03Z. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AVERAGING 14KTS WITH GUSTS TO 24KTS
AFTER 24/18Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  45  51  37 /  80 100  10   0
MKL  68  45  50  37 / 100 100  10   0
JBR  63  40  47  35 / 100  90  10   0
TUP  74  53  59  38 /  60 100  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
301 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
A WARM FRONT TODAY NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY BORDERS AND WITH
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING MORE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OKULSKI