Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011

Flash Flood Warning 121, NWS Memphis, TN

June 16, 2011Crittenden County, St. Francis County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Jun 16, 2011, 6:27 PM CDT for Crittenden County, St. Francis County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2011, 6:27 PM CDT (23:27 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2011, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Crittenden County, AR, St. Francis County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 808 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1856 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

754 
WGUS54 KMEG 162327
FFWMEG
ARC035-123-170230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0121.110616T2327Z-110617T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
  HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  EDMONDSON...HUGHES...NEW HOME...PINCKNEY AND SIMSBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9061 3513 9021 3505 9026 3505 9029
      3498 9030 3497 9029 3493 9031 3494 9063

$$


TLSJR

1 follow-up statement

297 
WGUS74 KMEG 170229
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
929 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARC035-123-170240-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0121.000000T0000Z-110617T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-
929 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN
AND EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3514 9061 3513 9021 3505 9026 3505 9029
      3498 9030 3497 9029 3493 9031 3494 9063

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 16, 2:59 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 2:59 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF THE TWO MCS IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHILE SECOND MCS IS EXITING SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SECTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN OF
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS SOME AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY AND
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE HOT
AND HUMIND WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER STARTING TUESDAY WITH
READINGS APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (16/18Z-17/18Z)

LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME. KEPT IN CB AT KMEM AND KTUP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT NEARBY AND AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWEST AR SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...STILL THINK
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
TIMING OF TEMPO TSRA FOR TONIGHT AS IN EARLIER TAFS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LESS THAN DESIRED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...5-8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY FROM THE S AND SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  95  78  96 /  30  10  10  10
MKL  72  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
JBR  73  94  75  96 /  30  10  10  10
TUP  73  96  74  97 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 3:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-172245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
332 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS WITH
PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY DAY BEING SUNDAY AS HEAT INDEX READINGS RISE TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:19 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE WHITEHAVEN         35.05N 90.00W
06/13/2011  M60.00 MPH       SHELBY             TN   OTHER FEDERAL

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST REPORTED BY CONTRACT WEATHER
            OBSERVER AT MEMPHIS INTL AIRPORT.

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 4:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             PALMETTO                34.19N 88.79W
06/16/2011  E0.88 INCH       LEE                MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KRM

Local storm report, Jun 16, 4:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
449 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
06/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KRM

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:34 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             NEUHARDT                35.06N 90.33W
06/16/2011  E0.88 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     HAIL             NEUHARDT                35.06N 90.33W
06/16/2011  E1.75 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPTO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN NEUHARDT.

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:48 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             1 S WALCOTT             36.02N 90.67W
06/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 141.

0540 PM     HAIL             5 W MARIANNA            34.77N 90.85W
06/16/2011  E1.50 INCH       LEE                AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 79

&&

TLSJR

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:59 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
559 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             SARDIS                  34.43N 89.91W
06/16/2011  E0.88 INCH       PANOLA             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
06/16/2011                   DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN KENNETT

0555 PM     HAIL             NEUHARDT                35.06N 90.33W
06/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NOW IN NEUHARDT.

&&

TLSJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Randolph	46 min
Jun 16, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene	44 min
Jun 16, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	47 min
Jun 16, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	28 min
Jun 16, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	46 min
Jun 16, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett, St. Francis	47 min
Jun 16, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett	44 min
Jun 16, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Craighead, Greene, Mississippi	50 min
Jun 16, 5:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden	49 min
Jun 16, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, St. Francis	44 min
Jun 16, 5:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	25 min
Jun 16, 5:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	38 min
Jun 16, 5:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	49 min
Jun 16, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	32 min
Jun 16, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, St. Francis	46 min
Jun 16, 6:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	27 min
Jun 16, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden	44 min
Jun 16, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett	33 min
Jun 16, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	23 min
Jun 16, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, St. Francis	28 min
Jun 16, 6:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Mississippi	50 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2011 Every flash flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.