Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
304 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE MIDSOUTH.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. SOME SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF AND MAINLY AFFECT NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD FALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND MAY POSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS FOR THE RIVERS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS BEGIN TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN LOWER TO MID
50S.

SATURDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 12Z NAM
INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
COULD FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EITHER
WAY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS
COULD POSE MORE PROBLEMS TO THE ONGOING FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. HIGHS WILL BE IN
N THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL STRONGLY BE IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE SURGED
WELL NORTH BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FOR AT LEAST EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL ON THURSDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY KJBR AND KMKL WITH MVFR VSBYS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  52  73  57  81 /  20   0   0  20
MKL  46  71  48  78 /  40   0   0  40
JBR  48  71  53  79 /  40   0  10  40
TUP  49  73  47  81 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND
VIGILANCE WILL BE REQUIRED IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD ZONE NEAR ANY
AREA RIVER. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE MEMPHIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ALSO
CONTINUE TO HEED WARNINGS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC FLOOD AREAS AND POSSIBLE
EVACUATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS
ON LEVEES. MAJOR TO RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AS RUN OFF
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF A
HARRISBURG ARKANSAS...TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAB