Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

629 
WWUS54 KMAF 252215
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
515 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

TXC227-335-252300-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-110825T2300Z/
HOWARD TX-MITCHELL TX-
515 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTH 
OF COLORADO CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...SOUTH
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE 
SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 10088 3215 10078 3208 10088 3208 10126
      3222 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 059DEG 15KT 3217 10094

$$

513 
WWUS54 KMAF 252231
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

TXC227-335-252300-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-110825T2300Z/
HOWARD TX-MITCHELL TX-
531 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR ABOUT 20 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...SOUTH
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3227 10093 3214 10084 3208 10088 3208 10126
      3222 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 059DEG 15KT 3213 10101

$$

367 
WWUS54 KMAF 252246
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

TXC227-335-252256-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-110825T2300Z/
HOWARD TX-MITCHELL TX-
546 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 546 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3227 10093 3214 10084 3208 10088 3208 10126
      3222 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 059DEG 15KT 3210 10107

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
309 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE 25/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALSO LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO LAMESA LINE.

WE DO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL AID IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO AID OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ACROSS THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FINALLY...ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
GENERALLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. WE DID OPT TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE RUC13...NAM12 AND THE 4KM WRF/NMM. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ON THE DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER WE DID
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO THAT REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
THE THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF WESTERN EDDY COUNTY. THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION NEAR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...BUT DID OPT
TO INCREASE GRIDDED POPS SLIGHTLY. CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE HOTTEST ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL AID IN THE WARM UP WITH ALL
AREAS RUNNING ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WEST...BRINGING WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW FAR THIS FRONT MOVES IS STILL UNCLEAR. WE DID
DECREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              75 102  74 103  /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 101  70 103  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  76 102  75 104  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  99  74 101  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  92  70  93  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71 100  70 101  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  90  61  93  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74 101  72 102  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74 101  73 102  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    74 102  73 104  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

12/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
140 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011 /1240 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND