Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.AVIATION...
OVERALL IFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES INTO AR. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
SOUTH AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. ON TUESDAY
ALL RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. NORTHERN AR WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN BECOMING SNOW AROUND MID
MORNING. SOME HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH. MAINLY
IFR CEILINGS ON TUESDAY...WITH PATCHY MVFR OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS SE
3 TO 7 KNOTS OVER SE AR OVERNIGHT WHILE N TO NW 3 TO 8 KNOTS OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS ON TUESDAY SE TO E 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN
AR AREAS...WHILE BECOMING N TO NW TO W AT 10 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE A FEW IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT...THOSE
BEING TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA
AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE EXPECTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

FIRST UP...ICE ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON AN
AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. MODEL PRECIPITATION TOTALS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z TOMORROW FOR THAT AREA OF THE STATE. THE DAY SHIFT HAD SIMILAR
QPF VALUES IN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AND HAVE NOT REALLY MESSED WITH
THOSE TOO MUCH. THERMAL PROFILES IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME
HAVE ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET. HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE CHANCE FOR A LONGER
DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGE TO SLEET..AND
EVENTUALLY TO SNOW...OCCURS. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THAT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD...AND I HAVE INCREASED
THESE TO A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME EITHER. THESE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRIMARILY FOR BOONE...NEWTON...MARION...SEARCY
AND BAXTER COUNTIES WHICH WERE IN THE ORIGINAL WINTER STORM
WARNING ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO INCREASING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST I
HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME COUNTIES TO THE WARNING AREA.
FULTON...IZARD...STONE...VAN BUREN...POPE...JOHNSON AND LOGAN
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
WINTER STORM WARNINGS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES...AND SHOULD
BE MORE TOWARDS A QUARTER INCH.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO
FURTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

AVIATION...
OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES IN AR. E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SOUTH AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE LIGHT
RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TOWARD
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. ON TUESDAY ALL RAIN WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. NORTHERN AR WILL
SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
BECOMING SNOW LATE MORNING TO NOON. MAINLY IFR CEILINGS ON
TUESDAY...WITH PATCHY MVFR OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS ON TUESDAY SE TO E
5 TO 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN AR AREAS...WHILE BECOMING N TO NW TO W AT
10 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
MIXTURE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE BUSY DAY...THIS WILL BE
A SHORT AND SWEET DISCUSSION.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND MOVE JUST EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. ON THIS TRACK...A COLD RAIN WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. IN FACT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
WIND FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

HOWEVER...THE MORE PRESSING MATTER WILL BE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST...FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...AS
ICE ACCUMULATION...SLEET AND SNOW WILL ALL COMBINE FOR HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.

THE REST OF THE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH HAVE BEEN PUT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS.

FAR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH WARM GROUND DUE
TO HIGHS OVER 70 THIS PAST WEEKEND...ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE MAY BE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF
SNOW LATE TUESDAY AROUND LITTLE ROCK.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TEMPERED.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED.

IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TEMPORARILY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
SPIN UP THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY INTO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS IN
THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH THAT
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...SO LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF ACCUMULATION.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL GET
NOTHING MORE THAN A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...NORTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY. QPF DOESNT LOOK TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE
ARE TOO MANY MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS POINT TO BE SURE. WENT
WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH LIQUID PRECIP
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  41  42  18 /  30  70 100  40
CAMDEN AR         61  51  55  21 /  20  60 100  20
HARRISON AR       50  32  34  11 /  30  90 100  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  47  48  20 /  20  70 100  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  48  49  21 /  20  60 100  30
MONTICELLO AR     61  54  65  24 /  20  40 100  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  43  45  18 /  30  80 100  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  34  36  13 /  30  80 100  50
NEWPORT AR        49  44  45  21 /  30  60 100  40
PINE BLUFF AR     57  51  57  23 /  20  50 100  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  40  43  16 /  30  80 100  30
SEARCY AR         50  45  46  21 /  30  60 100  40
STUTTGART AR      55  50  54  23 /  20  50 100  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-INDEPENDENCE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-
SCOTT-SHARP-YELL.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-STONE-
VAN BUREN.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
835 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND PARTS
OF NORTH ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICING AND SNOW POTENTIAL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM TONIGHT TO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SEVERAL TYPES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE.
AHEAD OF IT...SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN OF A
QUARTER TO HALF AND INCH INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SOME WINTRY WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
CAUSING A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
AROUND JASPER...TO CLINTON...TO MOUNTAIN VIEW AND SALEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH MAY ALSO
OCCUR...NORTH AND ALONG THE PARIS TO SALEM LINE.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE...WITH FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID DAY. HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH TWO TO SIX INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A BIT
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE ADVISORY
AREAS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WITH
AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN FALLING. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE STRONG WINDS
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MAINLY BE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS THE COLDER AIR
SEEPS INTO THIS PORTION OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
CENTRAL ARKANSAS COULD SEE ANYWHERE BETWEEN A DUSTING TO ONE INCH OF
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY ON TUESDAY...BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH IN PLACES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE POURING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. BY
THURSDAY MORNING...READINGS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST...
WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON ELSEWHERE. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECT THE WINTER WEATHER WILL HAVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS.

MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
AND INFORMATION REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/61/59