Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE WAS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

A FEW STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO
INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY. QUICK ONE TO TWO
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...HIGH WILL BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DROP...AND IT WILL HEAT UP.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN AS THE PERIOD ENDS...WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES BECOMING NECESSARY.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM...REMAINING OVER THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE DROPS SOUTH AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY. EVEN THEN...STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO POST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON PULSE-TYPE STORM COULD DEVELOP. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S...WITH LOWS IN THE
70S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  94  74  95 /  30  40  20  20
CAMDEN AR         75  95  74  98 /  30  40  20  30
HARRISON AR       72  93  72  95 /  30  40  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  94  76  96 /  30  40  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  93  76  97 /  30  40  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     75  93  75  97 /  30  40  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  95  74  96 /  30  40  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  94  73  97 /  30  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        73  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  92  75  96 /  30  40  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  94  75  97 /  30  40  20  20
SEARCY AR         75  92  74  96 /  30  40  20  20
STUTTGART AR      76  92  76  96 /  30  40  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
136 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
136 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM AS STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SYSTEM BRINGS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
208 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E FRANKLIN            36.17N 91.72W
07/29/2011                   IZARD              AR   POST OFFICE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 56 EAST OF FRANKLIN
            TOWARDS MYRON.

&&

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ARZ032-039-043-044-292105-
FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER...EASTERN
PERRY...NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND NORTHERN SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ITALY...OR NEAR LAKE
MAUMELLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKE MAUMELLE...      ROLAND...             LITTLE ITALY...
  WYE MTN...            WYE...                FOURCHE...
  WILFORD PEAK...       REYNOLDS MTN...       PIGEON ROOST MTN...
  NORTHPOINT...         MOYER MTN...          MONNIE SPRINGS...
  MAUMELLE HARBOR...    LUNDSFORD CORNER...   LOLLIE...
  KRYER MTN...          KETCHEL MTN...        KENNEY MTN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3498 9244 3487 9249 3477 9261 3489 9274
      3500 9264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 288DEG 3KT 3491 9260

64