Severe Thunderstorm Warning 841, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA....PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...FROM NEAR HARRISON...TO NEAR PINE BLUFF.

EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDTIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE...ANALYZED FROM
NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SHOULD PROMOTE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY FIELDS INDICATE
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. FORECAST
NEAR TERM SHEAR/INSTABILTY PROFILES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED CELLS IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...AND SHOULD PROMOTE A CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH LESS REFINED AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTER A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FCST LATER THIS WEEK AS
MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TROPICAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
FL PENINSULA BEGINNING LATE THU. ONE MAY WONDER WHY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AFFECTING FL MATTERS TO AR. ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT MANY
ARKANSANS LIKE TO VACATION TO FL...A TROPICAL SYSTEM EXERTS
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS AS STRONG AS IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
TRACKS ACROSS FL OR THE FAR SE US...IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO ENHANCE
NRLY UPPER FLOW BTW THE TROPICAL LOW AND THE STRONG UPR RIDGE TO OUR
WEST. THIS TYPE OF UPR FLOW IS KNOWN TO BE CONDUCIVE TO DRIVING COLD
FRONTS INTO AND THROUGH AR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
COOLER...DRIER WX FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS WEAKER OR MOVES FURTHER EAST OFF
THE US EAST COAST...THE STORY MAY BE DIFFERENT.  SUBJECTIVE H5
ANALOG ANALYSIS FROM HEAT EVENTS THIS SUMMER HINTS THAT IN THE
ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE UPR RIDGE COULD TRY TO BUILD BACK
EAST INTO THE STATE AS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WEAKENS AND TROUGHINESS
REDEVELOPS OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS SITUATION
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING.

SO WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
TROPICS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD WHAT
SEEMS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION OF A STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND ENHANCED NRLY FLOW AND COOLER/DRIER WX FOR AR.

LOST IN ALL OF THAT SHUFFLE IS THAT THE LONG TERM WILL LIKELY START
WITH UNSETTLED WX ON WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
STATE. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
TO ACCOUNT.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED TRENDING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  92  71  93 /  40  30  10  30
CAMDEN AR         74 100  71  99 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       71  91  70  92 /  30  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  98  74  97 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  96  72  95 /  30  20  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     75  98  73  97 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  92  71  93 /  40  30  10  30
NEWPORT AR        74  93  71  93 /  40  30  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     77  97  73  96 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  96  73  96 /  30  20  10  30
SEARCY AR         76  94  72  93 /  40  20  10  30
STUTTGART AR      76  95  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
135 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
135 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST...INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND WILL PROMOTE DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST...ALLOWING A RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FLOW
WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO ON SUNDAY...A
FRONT WILL SAG INTO ARKANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO...WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EACH DAY...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE OVERALL TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOME PART OF ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A LESSER THREAT. ALSO AT TIMES HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE OVER 100 TO AROUND 105 DEGREES...AND A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE IN EFFECT. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN DURING
PERIODS OF HIGH HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARZ016-025-033-034-201630-
INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-WHITE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOODRUFF...EASTERN WHITE...
SOUTHERN JACKSON AND EXTREME SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 AM CDT...

AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A DRY GUST FRONT WITH WINDS UP TO 40 MILES PER HOUR. THIS
GUST FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALGOA
TO NEAR BARE STONE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

THOUGH NO RAINFALL OR LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH WILL BE SEEN AS THE GUST FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEARCY...             AUGUSTA...            WEST POINT...
  TUPELO...             STEPROCK...           RUSSELL...
  PRYOR...              PATTERSON...          MCFADDEN...
  MCCRORY...            KENSETT...            JUDSONIA...
  HURRICANE LAKE WMA... HIGGINSON...          GEORGETOWN...
  BALD KNOB...          ALGOA...              WORDEN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3509 9178 3552 9178 3557 9103 3513 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 356DEG 26KT 3547 9106 3543 9161

BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARZ041-052-201820-
MONTGOMERY AR-PIKE AR-
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PIKE AND SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 102 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANFRED...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF MT IDA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEGUR...              GLENWOOD...           CADDO GAP...
  STRAWN MTN...         SHARP TOP MTN...      NELSON MTN...
  MARKHAM MTN...        MANFRED...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3440 9343 3428 9354 3437 9370 3448 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 299DEG 12KT 3438 9360

55

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