Severe Thunderstorm Warning 744, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...ALL TIME HOTTEST TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE BEING CHALLENGED TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT HEAT WAVE HAS STEPPED UP ITS ACT TODAY AND RECORDS ARE
BEING SHATTERED STATEWIDE. AS OF THIS WRITING...LITTLE ROCK ADAMS
FIELD HAS BROKEN THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH OF 112 FOR ANY DAY OF ANY
YEAR SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN 1877. AT 231 PM CDT...LITTLE ROCK
HIT 113 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...RECORDS STOOD NO
CHANCE UNDER THIS RIDGE AS THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS ALLOWING FOR SRN PLAINS TYPE READINGS OF
110-114 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEEN...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE STORMS.

LUCKILY FOR US...THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK...LIKELY
THE SUMMER...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE DECADE. A WEAK SHRTWV WILL CAUSE
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPR RIDGE BEGINNING TMRW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHCS OF PRECIP AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE NRN
PART OF THE STATE. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REMAINING IN THE HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE
NORTH. IN THE WRN CWA...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-110 RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR AREAS BOUNDED GENERALLY BY I30 ON THE WEST AND I40 ON
THE NORTH.  OTRW...REST OF FCST ON TRACK...WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND
TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION. THE PERSISTENT UPR
RDG RMNS FCST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT A BIT WWD DURG THE PD. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE OF A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH...BRINGING A
FNTL BNDRY INTO PARTS OF NERN AR OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FNT WL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCTD CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING HRS.

EXPECT SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS DURG THE PD...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. ALTHOUGH...WE WL
CONT TO SEE READINGS STAY AT ABV NORMAL LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80 100  76  98 /  20  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         82 107  82 104 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       79  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    81 104  82 103 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84 105  82 102 /  20  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     82 105  81 101 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      80 105  80 102 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        80 100  77  97 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83 107  81 102 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79 105  80 104 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         80 102  78  99 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      80 105  79 100 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FULTON-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FULTON-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

SHORT TERM...63 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TODAY...BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN PLACES. THESE
READINGS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE VERY
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 115 DEGREES.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. THIS COULD VERY WELL
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR...AND PEOPLE NEED TO TAKE THE HEAT
SERIOUSLY. HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN THE
UNITED STATES.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. THUNDERSTORM WINDS COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IN THE COMING DAYS. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE SO HOT...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
AWAY FROM THE HIGH. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

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