Severe Thunderstorm Warning 732, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NOT MUCH TO SAY IN THE SHORT TERM FCST THAT HAS NOT BEEN SAID
ALREADY.  IT IS HOT...HOT...HOT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH/HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED EVENING AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR
115 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80F. HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY FROM THU-FRI.

AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE 104-109F RANGE...H85 TEMPS ACTUALLY
INCREASE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES TO 28C...WHICH IS RATHER OUT OF
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY...WITH 110 POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS IN THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE.

ADDED ISO STORMS TO THE NW CWA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1700 J/KG MEAN THAT ANY
STORM COULD PRODUCE SVR WINDS.

THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE STATE
ON THU AND THINK THIS WILL KEEP NRN AREAS COOLER WITH SLGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SNEAKY BAND OF MSTR
POOLING COULD RESULT IN VERY OPPRESSIVE CONDS ACROSS CEN AR AS THE
NAM INDICATES DEWPTS POOLING TOWARD 80F THU AND FRI AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS 80F DEWPTS COULD MAKE THU ANOTHER
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO STAY IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION THRU THE
PD...THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS INDCD FROM TIME TO TIME. BASICALLY
STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING TEMPS THRU THE PD...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHCS OF PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION MOST DAYS. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVY/S WL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THRU THE PD AS WELL ACRS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78 105  79  98 /  10  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         78 107  79 103 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       76 108  77  99 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    80 108  81 103 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80 107  82 101 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     79 106  80 102 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77 107  78 103 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76 107  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        78 103  80  98 /  10  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     77 105  79 102 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76 110  79 102 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         77 105  79  97 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78 104  80  98 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...63 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 109 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO 105 TO 113
DEGREES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF ARKANSAS TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF ARKANSAS.

SUBSEQUENTLY THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS...AND IT WILL REMAIN HOT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 110
DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH
AROUND 115 DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

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